By: Ahmad M. Awad
Jordan Daily – Amid the profound transformations taking place in the international order, the United States is adopting stringent trade policies that reflect its growing concern over the decline of its global leadership role, especially in the face of rising competing economic powers, most notably China.
These policies, commonly referred to as “trade wars,” are no longer merely technical economic tools. They have become part of a broader American strategy aimed at reshaping the rules of the global trade system to serve its direct interests—even if this comes at the expense of global economic stability, its traditional partners, or its strategic adversaries.
The current U.S. administration justifies these measures as part of its goal to reduce the trade deficit, which nears $1.2 trillion, and to relocate major industries back to the United States. However, behind this official narrative lie internal financial motives, chiefly the need to increase revenues to offset the losses caused by large tax cuts granted to the corporate sector.
Yet the bet on reshoring industries to the U.S. lacks a realistic foundation. It is difficult to convince companies that relocated decades ago to countries offering cheaper and more flexible production environments to return without offering massive financial incentives to compensate for the cost differences. Historical experiences, such as those in the 1930s and the 1970s, have shown that strict protectionist policies can lead to counterproductive outcomes, most notably the exacerbation of economic crises rather than their containment.
Today, the global economy is grappling with a severe shock: the surge in prices of essential goods, disruptions in supply chains, growing uncertainty, and falling financial market indicators. Combined, these factors signal a potential global economic recession—or even the more dire scenario of “stagflation,” where slowing growth coincides with rising prices.
Concerns are further heightened by international reactions to the new American policies. China has announced a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, while the European Union and Canada are threatening similar measures. This escalating tit-for-tat risks triggering a full-scale trade war that could impact all countries—especially those with fragile economies that rely heavily on exports as a primary source of national income, a defining feature of countries in the Global South.
The irony is that these American policies are being implemented at a time when global challenges—from the climate crisis to food insecurity—demand more international cooperation, not increased competition and escalation. Instead of reinforcing global partnerships to confront these crises, the United States is engaging in a reckless trade confrontation. The first victims will be the most vulnerable countries, which will suffer from economic shocks including reduced global demand, increased import costs, and currency depreciation—resulting in deepened poverty, unemployment, and social inequalities.
In this context, the global trade system that existed prior to these transformations cannot be absolved of bias and imbalance. For decades, Global South countries have been subjected to unfair trade conditions, forced to export raw materials at low prices while facing strict barriers on exporting their industrial and agricultural goods to advanced economies. However, the current actions of the U.S. administration do not fix these imbalances; they worsen and reshape them in a more selfish and dangerous way.
The world today stands at a transitional phase that is redrawing the contours of international economic balances and imposing a new reality that may not benefit all. In this context, the United States is leaving all options on the table in a conflict that could last for years, one that carries few opportunities but great risks.
At the local level, although Jordan’s economy does not play a central role in America’s trade landscape, the new policies will have tangible effects. Jordanian exports to the U.S. amount to approximately $3.3 billion annually, constituting nearly a quarter of the country’s total exports—mostly in garments, along with jewelry, fertilizers, and information technology products. The imposition of new tariffs—such as the proposed 20% U.S. duty—will directly affect sectors that employ thousands of Jordanians.
This raises real concerns about the future of the Jordan-U.S. Free Trade Agreement: Will it remain in effect, or will the U.S. administration reconsider its commitments unilaterally? Jordan must act diplomatically to ensure these agreements are respected and to mitigate the expected harm to its national economy.
The growing competition from countries like Egypt and Morocco—which export goods to the U.S. with a 10% tariff—adds further pressure on Jordanian exports, especially from the Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZ). The jewelry sector also faces a serious threat.
All these factors will reflect on Jordan’s overall economy through imported inflation that raises the cost of goods and services, increases living burdens, and deepens poverty and unemployment—at a time when the economy is already suffering from weak growth rates and declining investments.
Ahmad Awad is the founder and director of the Phenix Center for Economic Studies, specializes in human rights and socio-economic issues. He is also advocate for human rights and promoting democracy and civil society at local, Arab, and international levels.
