By : Green Horizons
Green Horizons U.S. Market Weekly Overview: (31/03/2025 – 04/04/2025)
Jordan Daily – As we enter the first week of April, the US financial markets remain a battleground for volatility and opportunity. With significant economic data releases, Federal Reserve signals, and continuing geopolitical developments all influencing investor sentiment, traders must remain flexible in navigating the volatile terrain. Will equities maintain their recent strength, or will new uncertainty cause a change in market direction? This week’s review delves into the key drivers driving price movement across major indexes, currencies, and commodities, allowing you to remain ahead in an ever-changing market.
This is not a buy or sell recommendation but rather a general market outlook. You can contact the analyst and access the recommendation channels by reaching out via Telegram at @GHVATECH.
Technical Analysis
- S&P500 (SPX500):
Support Levels: 5490 / 5510 / 5531 A crucial support zone where the index has previously shown resilience.
Resistance Levels: 5570 / 5600 / 5630 Breaking past this level may signal continued upward momentum.
Weekly Outlook:
Signs of recovery emerged at the beginning of last week’s trading; however, we witnessed relatively strong declines on Friday, the final trading day of the week. The upward movement was merely a retest of the previously broken ascending trendline, while the overall direction remains in a downward trend.
Simply put, there are two potential outlooks, each with its own conditions. Buying opportunities arise within the 5520–5535 range, provided that the price does not break and stabilize below the key support level at 5500. The targets, in succession, would be 5670 – 5705 – 5750 – 5810.
Conversely, if the key support level is broken and price stabilizes below it, further declines may follow, potentially reaching the 5300 range.
2- Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):
Support Levels: 1960 / 1985 / 2010 The existing support levels in place.
Resistance Levels: 2035 / 2055 / 2080 The index may experience upward momentum if it breaks through this resistance.
Weekly Outlook:
The Russell Index is currently trading in a minor downward trend. However, some signs of recovery have begun to emerge. Simply put, as long as prices remain above the key support level of 1980, buying opportunities may arise within the 1997–2020 range, targeting 2060 and 2100 in succession.
On the other hand, if the key support level is broken and price stabilizes below it, further declines could follow, potentially reaching the 1920 level.
3- Dow Jones (US30):
Support Levels: 40650 / 40870 / 41100 A significant support level currently in place.
Resistance Levels: 41650 / 42020 / 42310 A breakout above this level would confirm the upward trend.
Weekly Outlook:
With the sharp declines witnessed by the Dow Jones Index at the end of last week’s trading, signs of recovery have nevertheless emerged during the past week. As long as the Dow Jones remains above the 40,900 level, the positive outlook can be maintained. Buying opportunities may arise within the 41,050–41,310 range, with potential targets reaching 43,000. Each resistance level must be surpassed and held above to pave the way for the next target.
The expected weekly range is between the 40,900 support and the 42,600 resistance, provided that the 40,900–40,800 support zone holds and remains unbroken.
However, if the key support level is breached and price stabilizes below it, the next targets will be 40,700, 40,423, and 40,101, respectively.
4- Nasdaq100 (US100):
Support Levels: 17650 / 18000 / 18450 / 18820 A key support levels in case of additional declines.
Resistance Levels: 19470 / 19820 / 20080 A break of this level could signal the beginning of a robust upward trend.
Weekly Outlook:
The Nasdaq Index is currently trading in a minor downward trend. Last week, we saw a slight rebound as the index retested the previously broken ascending trendline but remained below it. As a result, the bearish outlook remains dominant for Nasdaq.
The selling zone from last week at 19,800–20,100 remains relevant, with downside targets extending toward 18,800–18,700. The bearish scenario will be confirmed upon breaking below the 19,100 support level and stabilizing beneath it. In a broader outlook, if the downtrend continues, the index could potentially decline further toward the 17,500 region.
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5- Gold (XAUUSD):
Support Levels: 3025 /3045 / 3060
Resistance Levels: 3095 / 3124 / 3158
Weekly News
This week, investors will pay close attention to key economic data and corporate earnings, driving heightened market volatility. The performance of major indices, commodities, and currencies will be shaped by central bank decisions, critical financial reports, and global geopolitical developments. In light of these factors, traders and investors must navigate a dynamic market environment filled with both opportunities and risks.
Monday (31/03/2025):
The Chicago PMI: is a monthly economic indicator measuring business conditions based on a survey of around 200 purchasing managers in the Chicago area. A reading above 50.0 signals expansion, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. It serves as a key leading indicator of economic health, as purchasing managers have up-to-date insights into market conditions. Released on the last business day of each month, the data is first provided to MNI subscribers three minutes before public release, often influencing early market reactions.
Tuesday (01/04/2025):
The Final Manufacturing PMI: is a monthly economic indicator based on a survey of about 800 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. A reading above 50.0 signals industry expansion, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. Released on the first business day after the month ends, the Final PMI follows an earlier Flash release, which has more market impact. This index serves as a leading indicator of economic health, reflecting the most current business conditions.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI: is a monthly economic indicator based on a survey of about 300 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. A reading above 50.0 signals industry expansion, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. Released on the first business day after the month ends, it provides insights into business conditions like employment, production, and new orders. This index is a key leading indicator of economic health.
JOLTS Job Openings: measures the number of job openings in the U.S. excluding the farming industry. A reading higher than the forecast is typically positive for the currency. Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends, it serves as a leading indicator of overall employment and can impact the market. Job creation is crucial as it signals consumer spending, which drives much of the economy.
ISM Manufacturing Prices: is a monthly index based on a survey of about 300 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. A reading above 50.0 signals rising prices, while below 50.0 indicates falling prices. Released on the first business day after the month ends, this data serves as an inflation gauge. It’s important for traders as it signals consumer inflation trends, with higher costs often passed on to consumers.
Construction Spending m/m: measures the change in the total amount spent on construction projects. A reading higher than the forecast is generally positive for the currency. Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends, it provides insights into the health of the construction sector. The previous change was -0.2%, with a forecast of 0.2%.
Wednesday (02/04/2025):
ADP Non-Farm Employment: Change measures the estimated change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government. A higher-than-forecast reading is typically positive for the currency. Released monthly, usually on the first Wednesday after the month ends, it provides an early look at employment growth, ahead of the government’s data. Job creation is a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives much of the economy.
Factory Orders m/m: This report measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. A reading higher than the forecast is typically positive for the currency. Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends, it includes a revision of Durable Goods Orders and new data on non-durable goods. Traders care because it’s a leading indicator of production—rising orders suggest increased manufacturing activity.
Thursday (03/04/2025):
Challenger Job Cuts y/y: measures the change in the number of job cuts announced by employers. A reading lower than the forecast is generally positive for the currency. Released monthly, usually on the first Thursday after the month ends, this data is early and has limited short-term correlation with overall labor conditions.
Unemployment Claims: measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. A reading lower than the forecast is generally positive for the currency. Released weekly, usually on the first Thursday after the weekends, it is the earliest economic data in the U.S. Traders care because it signals overall economic health, as consumer spending is closely tied to labor market conditions.
Trade Balance: measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. A reading greater than the forecast is generally positive for the currency. Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends, a positive number indicates more exports than imports. Traders care because export demand and currency demand are linked, as foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for exports.
The Services PMI: measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while below suggests contraction. Released monthly on the third business day, it is a leading economic indicator, offering insight into business conditions. Traders care because it provides a snapshot of economic health. with a previous reading of 54.3 and a forecast of 52.8.
The ISM Services PMI: measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services sector, excluding manufacturing. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while below signals contraction. Released monthly on the third business day after the month ends, it is a leading indicator of economic health. Traders value it for its timely insight into business conditions. With a previous reading of 53.5 and a forecast of 53.0.
Friday (04/04/2025):
Average Hourly Earnings m/m: measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends, it serves as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. An actual reading greater than the forecast is positive for currency. with a previous reading of 0.3% and a forecast of 0.3%.
Non-Farm Employment Change: measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry. Released monthly, typically on the first Friday after the month ends, it’s a key economic indicator with significant market impact. An actual result greater than the forecast is positive for currency. with a previous reading of 151K and a forecast of 139K. It’s a crucial indicator of job creation and consumer spending.
The Unemployment Rate: measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends, an actual rate lower than the forecast is positive for currency. While it’s a lagging indicator, it provides important insight into economic health, as consumer spending is closely linked to labor-market conditions. The previous rate was 4.1%, with a forecast of 4.1%.
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