Green Horizons US Markets Weekly Report

07/04/2025

By : Green Horizons

Green Horizons U.S. Market Weekly Overview (07/04/2025 – 11/04/2025)

Jordan Daily -As we approach the week of April 7 to April 11, 2025, US markets are at a critical juncture when uncertainty meets opportunity. With volatility continuing a prevalent topic, investors are keeping an eye out for signs in economic data, company results, and policy comments.

In this edition of Green Horizons U.S. Market Weekly Overview, we prepare you for the next trading week by identifying major catalysts to monitor, sectors ready for movement, and strategic insights to help you handle both risk and opportunity with a clear advantage.

This is not a buy or sell recommendation but rather a general market outlook. You can contact the analyst and access the recommendation channels by reaching out via Telegram at @GHVATECH.

Technical Analysis

S&P500 (SPX500):

Support Levels: 4825 / 4915 / 4994 A crucial support zone where the index has previously shown resilience.

Resistance Levels: 5368 / 5447 / 5535 Breaking past this level may signal continued upward mome

Weekly Outlook:

The index experienced significant declines, and indeed, we had identified the key sell zones and targets in last week’s report, with the scenario playing out in full.

The overall trend remains clearly bearish; however, after reaching the current levels, we prefer to start looking for positioning in long-term investment opportunities.

The expected trading range for the week lies between the main support at 4920 and resistance at 5200.

The optimal buying zones are between 4930 and 5020, with an initial target around 5170, and extended targets reaching up to the 5500 area.

2- Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):

Support Levels: 1728 / 1766 / 1800 The existing support levels in place.

Resistance Levels: 1960 / 1994 / 2031 The index may experience upward momentum if it breaks through this resistance.

Weekly Outlook:

The index declined sharply, sparking fear among traders and investors. As mentioned in last week’s report, a break below the 1980 level was expected to lead to further downside — which indeed unfolded.

The overall trend remains bearish; however, we will also be looking for potential long positioning opportunities, as prices have now approached key buying zones.

The expected trading range for the week is between the current active support at 1710 and resistance at 1900.

The optimal buying range lies between 1700 and 1780, with an initial target at the 1880 area.

3- Dow Jones (US30):

Support Levels: 36900 / 37430 / 37875 A significant support level currently in place.

Resistance Levels: 40000 / 40460 / 40970 A breakout above this level would confirm the upward trend.

Weekly Outlook:

The Dow Jones Index experienced sharp and alarming declines, reaching the 38,000 level.

The overall trend remains bearish; however, the index has now entered a very strong buying zone, which leads us to consider potential short-term buying opportunities.

The expected trading range for the week lies between support at 37,000 and resistance at 41,500.

The optimal buying zone is between 37,200 and 37,600, with an initial target around 38,600. A temporary upward move could extend toward the 41,000 level, but this depends on certain conditions that can only be confirmed through live and precise market monitoring.

If the index reaches the 41,000–41,500 area, it may present an opportunity for initiating sell positions, targeting a return toward the 38,000 level.

4- Nasdaq100 (US100):

Support Levels: 16643 / 16900 / 17116 A key support levels in case of additional declines.

Resistance Levels: 18200 / 18426 / 18681 A break of this level could signal the beginning of a robust upward trend.

Weekly Outlook:

The Nasdaq Index declined by nearly 2,000 points. As mentioned in last week’s report, a break below the 19,100 level and stability beneath it would open the way toward the 17,500 zone — and that scenario has materialized.

The overall trend remains bearish; however, the best buying zones lie between 16,700 and 17,100, offering a potential opportunity to benefit from a strong corrective rebound. The initial target is around 18,000, with extended upside potential toward the 19,000 level.

Selling opportunities may form between the 18,650 and 19,000 levels, with downside targets at 17,000 and subsequently 16,000.

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5- Gold (XAUUSD):

Support Levels: 2940 /2970 / 3000 / 3020

Resistance Levels: 3075 / 3095 / 3120

Weekly Outlook:

Weekly News

As we step into a new trading week, markets remain on edge amid a dynamic blend of economic data, geopolitical developments, and evolving investor sentiment. The previous week brought heightened volatility across key U.S. indices, commodities, and currencies, with sharp moves triggered by both technical factors and macroeconomic surprises.

We highlight the most important market-moving news, analyze how recent headlines have impacted financial instruments, and outline what traders and investors should watch for in the days ahead. From central bank commentary and inflation updates to earnings reports and geopolitical shifts — stay informed and prepared for the week’s key drivers.

Monday (07/04/2025):

Consumer Credit (m/m): This key metric tracks the monthly change in the total value of outstanding consumer credit, excluding mortgages. It measures consumer borrowing via installment loans and credit cards and is strongly related to consumer expenditure and confidence. Rising data indicate that customers are more inclined to spend and lenders are more confident in giving credit, which is typically good news for the US dollar. The previous reading was $18.1 billion, with a prediction of $15.2 billion.

Tuesday (08/04/2025):

The NFIB Small Business Index: gauges sentiment among small U.S. firms on economic circumstances such as hiring, sales, and credit. A stronger-than-expected number is positive for the dollar. The latest measurement was 100.7, with a prediction of 101.3.

Wednesday (09/04/2025):

The Final Wholesale Inventories (m/m): report tracks the monthly change in the value of items held by US wholesalers. A lower-than-expected figure (forecast: 0.4%, previous: 0.3%) is generally beneficial for the dollar since it may signal increased future corporate demand and expenditure. While the preliminary release has a higher market impact, the final report nevertheless provides vital information on inventory changes and overall economic momentum.

The 10-Year Bond Auction: discloses the greatest yield that investors are prepared to accept on US 10-year Treasury notes, as well as the bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates demand. While it does not have a constant immediate market impact, the results might assist traders measure investor mood toward future interest rates and overall market confidence. A greater yield may represent predictions of increasing interest rates, but a high bid-to-cover ratio indicates good demand and market liquidity.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes: contain thorough information about the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting. The minutes, released three weeks after the interest rate decision, provide a more in-depth look at the Fed’s economic forecast and reasons for rate adjustments. Markets pay close attention to the tone; a more hawkish posture usually boosts the currency, indicating likely rate rises or tighter policies ahead.

Thursday (10/04/2025):

The Core CPI m/m: measures the monthly change in consumer prices excluding food and energy, providing a more accurate picture of underlying inflation trends. As a major inflation indicator carefully watched by the Federal Reserve, a higher-than-expected number often supports the currency, indicating probable interest rate rises. The prediction now stands at 0.3%, somewhat higher than the prior 0.2%.

The CPI m/m: measures the monthly change in total consumer prices and is a key indicator of inflation. Because inflation has a considerable effect on central bank interest rate choices, a number above the prediction (now 0.1%, down from 0.2% previously) is usually favorable for the currency.

The CPI y/y: represents the yearly change in consumer prices. Because inflation influences central bank decisions, a higher-than-expected result (estimated at 2.6%, down from 2.8%) is usually beneficial for the currency, indicating possible rate rises.

Unemployment Claims: The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits for the first time. A lower-than-expected result (earlier 219K, anticipated 223K) often boosts the currency, reflecting a strong labor market and overall economic strength.

The 30-year Bond Auction: Measures the highest yield on 30-year bonds sold, as well as the bid-to-cover ratio. While it does not have a consistent market impact, it gives information on bond market liquidity and investor confidence. The auction results, which are given in the format ‘X.XX|X.X’, assist to forecast future interest rates and market circumstances.

The Federal Budget Balance: Measures the difference between the federal government’s income and spending from the previous month. A positive number implies a budget surplus, whereas a negative number indicates a deficit. A larger-than-expected surplus is often regarded as beneficial for the currency.

Friday (11/04/2025):

Core PPI m/m: Measures the change in the price of completed products and services sold by producers, excluding food and fuel. It is released on a monthly basis and is an important indication of inflation trends. A higher-than-expected outcome is often good for the currency. with an expected 0.3% rise. The prior report indicated a -0.1% change.

PPI m/m: Measures the price change of completed products and services sold by producers. It is released monthly and serves as a leading predictor of consumer inflation since rising producer prices are frequently passed on to consumers. A result that exceeds expectations is usually a good sign for the currency. with an expected 0.2% rise. The preceding release indicated a 0.0% change.

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Consumer confidence is measured via a poll of 420 people, which reflects their opinion on present and future economic situations. The Preliminary edition, which is released monthly, often has the greatest influence. A better-than-expected performance benefits the currency because improved financial confidence frequently translates to increased consumer spending, which is a crucial driver of economic activity. with a prediction of 54.0, vs the previous reading of 57.0.

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: evaluates consumers’ expectations for pricing changes in products and services over the following 12 months. The Preliminary version, which is released periodically, is more impactful. A stronger-than-expected outcome benefits the currency because growing inflation expectations can lead to greater pay demands, potentially pushing real inflation.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Jordan Daily, Green Horizons, and any affiliated advertisers disclaim all liability for any decisions made based on this report. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

07/04/2025