Green Horizons US Markets Weekly Report

27/01/2025

By : Green Horizons

Green Horizons US Market Weekly Report

27/01/2025 – 31/01/2025

Jordan Daily – The US financial markets are still moving dynamically as we enter the last trading days of January, providing investors with both chances and difficulties. With important earnings reports, economic data releases, and potentially market-moving events coming up, this week looks to be crucial. Market players will need to remain alert to properly traverse the terrain, which includes everything from the most recent Federal Reserve speech to the ongoing changes in the IT, energy, and banking sectors.

Regardless of your level of experience, this report will offer insightful information on the events, data, and trends influencing the markets this week. Prepare yourself for a week full of activity and opportunity as we reveal what the biggest financial markets in the globe have in store.

Technical Analysis

S&P500 (SPX500):

Support Levels: 5990 / 6020 / 6050 A crucial support zone where the index has previously shown resilience.

Resistance Levels: 6100 / 6150 / 6180 Breaking past this level may signal continued upward momentum.

Latest Outlook: We witnessed strong gains in this index during last week’s trading sessions, leading to a significant upward movement that broke the previous peak and established a new high at the 6,130 level.

Weekly Outlook:

Prices must now be monitored with great caution, as stability above the 6,020 level will support further positivity for this index. Based on this, buying positions can be established near the 6,030–6,055 range, with an initial target of 6,100, followed by 6,150–6,170. However, any clear break below the 6,020 level will require further updates to determine whether to build buying or selling positions.

Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):

Support Levels: 2170 / 2215 / 2250 The existing support levels in place.

Resistance Levels: 2307 / 2350 / 2412 The index may experience upward momentum if it breaks through this resistance.

Latest Outlook: This index remains somewhat resilient in the middle range and has yet to make a clear decision on either a strong upward or downward movement. Therefore, it is advisable to wait and closely monitor the situation to establish strong positions.

Weekly Outlook:

The key level that will determine the direction, at least in the short to medium term, is the 2,355 level. A clear breakout and stability above this level would indicate a slight corrective decline to create buying opportunities, with targets set at 2,400 and then 2,450. However, stability below this level supports a downward movement, allowing for selling opportunities targeting the 2,250 level, followed by 2,190.

Dow Jons (US30):

Support Levels: 43550 / 43820 / 44110 A significant support level currently in place.

Resistance Levels: 44560 / 44900 / 45100 A breakout above this level would confirm the upward trend.

Latest Outlook: Last week, we witnessed the beginning of an upward trend near the 43,480 level, with a strong rally reaching the 44,550 level. This represents an increase of approximately 2,000 points, which has significantly restored investor confidence in this index.

Weekly Outlook: Prices must now be monitored with extreme caution, as we always emphasize that peak levels or areas near them pose significant risks and can result in substantial losses due to the volatility that occurs in these zones. If prices stabilize below the 44,800 level, this will serve as an initial indication that a downward movement is likely.

Buying Opportunities: Positions can be initiated between the 43,750 – 44,050 range, targeting the peak levels once again.

Selling Opportunities: Short positions can be considered around the 44,800 – 45,050 range, with an initial target of 44,000, followed by 43,200, provided the peak level is not broken and prices remain below it.

Nasdaq100 (US100):

Support Levels: 21050 / 21350 / 21560 A key support levels in case of additional declines.

Resistance Levels: 21950 / 22090 / 22260 A break of this level could signal the beginning of a robust upward trend.

Latest Outlook: As we highlighted in last week’s report, stability around the 21,655 level would serve as a positive indicator for an upward movement. Indeed, prices rose to reach the 21,950 level. However, the index’s movement during last week’s trading was not particularly strong, prompting us to exercise heightened caution with this week’s trading activity.

Weekly Outlook:

We will closely monitor price movements; however, in general, the index’s stability above the 21,500 level will support a renewed rise toward the peak levels. Currently, short-selling opportunities are forming near the 21,950–22,180 range, targeting 21,600 and subsequently 21,200. However, any breakout above the previous peak and stability above it will present new opportunities, which we will update through our analysis channels.

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Gold (XAUUSD):

Support Levels: 2705 /2725 / 2750

Resistance Levels: 2785 / 2795 / 2810

Latest Outlook: Gold prices experienced significant gains during last week’s trading sessions, reaching levels near the previous peak at 2,786. This marked the fourth consecutive week in which we maintained a positive outlook on gold. As noted in our previous report, any decline to the 2,690–2,676 range should be seen as an opportunity to build long positions, with targets extending to the peak levels. This scenario unfolded precisely as forecasted last week, with gold following the outlined trajectory to the letter.

Weekly Outlook: We observe that gold prices have reached the historical peak for retest, with the 2,785–2,795 range being one of the strongest reversal zones. This area could potentially lead to a reversal in gold’s trajectory, shifting from an upward to a downward trend. However, as long as gold remains stable above the 2,725 level, the outlook remains positive, and opportunities for building strong buying positions should be sought.

Preferred Buying Zones for This Week:

– First Zone: 2,760–2,750

– Second Zone: 2,740–2,725

The target for both zones is the previous peak.

If gold continues to rise directly without a correction that provides an opportunity to establish buying positions, updates will be provided on our social media channels.

Weekly News

The week of January 20–24, 2025, could bring significant fluctuations in financial markets as investors brace for critical economic reports, corporate earnings updates, and geopolitical developments. Market sentiment may shift rapidly as key levels in indices, commodities, and currencies come under close scrutiny amid the unfolding events.

Monday (27/01/2025):

New Home Sales: The annualized number of new single-family homes sold in the previous month is measured in this report. Since house sales have an impact on everything from mortgages to furnishings, it is a leading predictor of the state of the economy. A result that exceeds the prediction of 669k is good for the currency. 664k was the prior amount.

Tuesday (28/01/2025):

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m: With the exception of transportation items, this report monitors the monthly variation in the value of new purchase orders for durable goods. Because growing orders imply more manufacturing activity, it is a leading indication of production. For the currency, a performance that exceeds the expectation by 0.3% is favorable. -0.2% was the prior value. Usually, the Factory Orders report, which is published a week or so later, updates the data.

Durable Goods Orders m/m: The monthly change in new purchase orders for durable goods—items like cars, appliances, and airplanes—that have a lifespan longer than three years is tracked in this report. Since more orders imply more manufacturing activity, it is a leading indication of production. A result that is higher than the prediction (0.1%) is good for the currency. Previously, it was -1.2%.

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y: The yearly price change of single-family houses in 20 major metropolitan regions is measured in this study. Because growing property prices draw in investors and increase industrial activity, they are a leading indicator of the strength of the housing sector. Both the historical and predicted values are 4.2%, indicating that the rise of home prices is stable.

HPI m/m: For mortgages backed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, this indicator tracks the monthly change in house purchase prices. Rising prices indicate greater investor interest and industry activity, which is indicative of the soundness of the housing market. The prediction is 0.2%, whereas the previous value was 0.4%.

CB Consumer Confidence: evaluates the present and future state of the economy by measuring the composite index level using data from a poll of 3,000 respondents. One of the main forces behind economic activity is prospective consumer spending, which is shown by consumer confidence. With a projection of 105.9, the previous figure was 104.7.

Richmond Manufacturing Index: monitors the state of business for 75 Richmond-area manufacturers, including employment, new orders, and shipments. Conditions are said to be getting better if the value is above zero, and becoming worse if it is below zero. The prediction was -8, and the previous number was -10. Because of the preceding regional manufacturing data, this indicator usually has a subdued market influence.

Wednesday (29/01/2025):

Goods Trade Balance: Since products make up 75% of all commerce, it highlights early trade trends and the differences between imported and exported items. The prediction is -105.7B, whereas the previous figure was -102.9B. A positive balance supports currency strength by showing more exports than imports. Currency value, price, and output are all impacted by export demand.

Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m: evaluates how much the value of the products wholesalers keep in stock has changed. A lower-than-expected outcome is good for the currency. The prediction is 0.1%, whereas the previous value was -0.2%. Since businesses frequently refill after depleted stocks, this monthly report offers early insights into anticipated company spending.

Federal Funds Rate: evaluates the interest rate at which depository institutions lend overnight to other institutions balances held at the Federal Reserve. With a projection of 4.50%, the prior rate was 4.50%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the rate, which affects short-term interest rates and is significant for currency value. With a greater emphasis on the accompanying FOMC Statement for future direction, the market frequently values the rate in advance.

FOMC Statement: The FOMC Statement, which offers information on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, is published eight times a year. Future policy recommendations are included, along with the results of the interest rate vote and a discussion of the economic factors that affected those choices. Because it is good for the currency, traders pay close attention to changes in the announcement, especially if it is more hawkish than anticipated.

FOMC Press Conference: The Federal Reserve Chair leads the FOMC Press Conference, which is held eight times a year. After a planned announcement, there is a Q&A period, which frequently leads to spontaneous responses that may trigger market volatility. For hints about future inflation, GDP prospects, and monetary policy, traders keep a careful eye on this event. The Fed’s YouTube account is hosting a live stream of the news conference.

Thursday (30/01/2025):

Advance GDP q/q: This calculates the annualized change in the value of all products and services generated by the economy after accounting for inflation. Every quarter, around 30 days after the end of the quarter, it is issued; the Advance release has the most influence. Because it is the most comprehensive indicator of economic activity and the main indicator of the state of the economy, traders are interested in this data. 3.1% in the past; 2.7% in the forecast.

Unemployment Claims: This indicates how many people applied for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week. Every week, usually on the first Thursday after the conclusion of the week, it is issued. This data is important to traders because it shows how the labor market is doing, which is directly related to consumer spending and the state of the economy as a whole. Forecast: 221K; Previous: 223K.

Advance GDP Price Index q/q: This calculates the yearly change in the cost of all the products and services that make up GDP. It is the most comprehensive indicator of inflation and influences central bank decisions. It is released every quarter approximately 30 days after the conclusion of the quarter. 1.9% in the past; 2.5% in the forecast. Since it’s a crucial instrument for evaluating inflation and central bank policy, traders are concerned.
Pending Home Sales m/m: This gauges the shift in the quantity of properties under contract for sale but not yet ready for closure. Since house sales have a broad impact, this leading economic indicator is released around 28 days after the end of each month. 2.2% in the past; -1.0% in the forecast. Because it predicts future home market activity and overall economic health, traders are interested.

Friday (31/01/2025):

Core PCE Price Index m/m: calculates the change in the cost of consumer-purchased goods and services, excluding energy and food. It is the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation indicator and is released every month, around 30 days after the end of the month. Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.1%. Because it affects the Fed’s interest rate choices, which have an effect on currency valuation, traders keep an eye on this.

Employment Cost Index q/q: evaluates how much the government and corporations pay for civilian work. Quarterly, around 30 days following the conclusion of the quarter, Forecast: 0.9%; Previous: 0.8%. Because rising labor costs frequently result in increased consumer prices, which might indicate inflation and have an impact on monetary policy choices, traders are concerned.

Personal Income m/m: calculates the variation in the total amount of money that customers get from all sources. released every month, around 30 days after the conclusion of the month, Forecast: 0.4%; Previous: 0.3%. Higher income can result in more consumer spending, which stimulates the economy and may have an effect on currency valuation, which is why traders are concerned.

Personal Spending m/m: calculates the change in the value of all consumer expenditures adjusted for inflation. released every month, around 30 days after the conclusion of the month, Forecast: 0.5%; Previous: 0.4%. Because consumer spending is a significant part of economic activity and affects both currency valuation and the state of the economy as a whole, traders are concerned. However, because of previous retail sales data, the impact is often minimal.

Chicago PMI: evaluates a diffusion index’s level using data from Chicago-area purchasing managers’ surveys. Every month on the final working day, Forecast: 40.6; Previous: 36.9. An expansion is indicated by a number over 50.0, and a contraction is shown by a value below. Because buying managers provide important knowledge into business situations, traders are concerned because it is a leading sign of economic health. MNI subscribers’ access to data prior to public release may be the cause of early market responses.

Market players have been concentrating on important economic indicators that provide crucial insights into the U.S. economy as we wrap up the week of January 27, 2025, to January 31, 2025. These announcements are influencing expectations for both short- and long-term economic performance, ranging from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate choices to the most recent GDP figures and labor market developments. The prognosis for the upcoming weeks is still fluid, with the Federal Reserve sticking to its position and markets responding to changes in consumer spending, GDP growth, and jobless claims. Since these changes will offer important hints about future monetary policy decisions and the state of the economy as a whole, traders should keep a careful eye on them. Participants should keep an eye out for any changes in the economic environment that might influence currency values and market behavior, as the upcoming time frame will be crucial in deciding the future course of market movements.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Jordan Daily, Green Horizons, and any affiliated advertisers disclaim all liability for any decisions made based on this report. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

27/01/2025