By : Green Horizons
Green Horizons U.S. Market Weekly Overview:
Key Trends & Insights (03/02/2025 – 07/02/2025)
Jordan Daily – As we enter the first week of February, investors continue to focus on major market-moving variables such as economic data releases, Federal Reserve signals, and corporate results. The previous week has seen increased volatility, driven by shifting investor mood and macroeconomic factors. This research provides a thorough examination of the most recent market trends, sector performance, and possible possibilities influencing the financial environment.
With inflationary fears, interest rate speculation, and earnings season in full gear, traders and investors must negotiate a changing landscape. Will the market maintain its momentum, or will we see increasing volatility? Let’s look at the key highlights and forecasts for the upcoming week.
Technical Analysis
- S&P500 (SPX500):
Support Levels: 5810 / 5850 / 5890 A crucial support zone where the index has previously shown resilience.
Resistance Levels: 6025 / 6060 / 6100 Breaking past this level may signal continued upward momentum.
Latest Outlook: During last week’s trading sessions, the index experienced a sharp decline, dropping from the 6126 level to 5914 in a direct fall, before rebounding and partially recovering to reach 6116 once again. These fluctuations have created a sense of uncertainty among traders and investors, making close monitoring essential to determine the upcoming trend.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, with the week’s trading range expected between the 5840-support level and the 6160-resistance level. A breakout above 6160 could extend the upward movement toward 6235.
The optimal buying zones are between 5890 – 5950, targeting 6100, 6160, and 6210, provided that the 5850 level is not breached and the price remains above it. A sustained break below this level could invalidate the bullish outlook in the short term.
Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):
Support Levels: 2180 / 2205 / 2225 The existing support levels in place.
Resistance Levels: 2310 / 2330 / 2350 The index may experience upward momentum if it breaks through this resistance.
Latest Outlook: Over the last two weeks, the index has traded in a narrow price range spanning 2266 to 2327. This little movement has caused considerable concern among dealers.
Weekly Outlook:
The general trend is rising, with the weekly trading range likely to be between the 2208 support and 2375 resistance levels. If the price surpasses and closes over 2375, the rising trend might continue to 2430.
The best purchasing zones are 2215-2245, with targets of 2300, 2340, and 2375, assuming the 2170 barrier is not broken and the price continues to close and trade below it.
Dow Jons (US30):
Support Levels: 43870 / 44000 / 44120 A significant support level currently in place.
Resistance Levels: 44660 / 44780 / 44900 / 45050 A breakout above this level would confirm the upward trend.
Latest Outlook: During last week’s trading session, the market opened sharply down, reached 43830. However, the index rebounded swiftly, rising back to its previous high of 45050.
Weekly Outlook: The general trend continues optimistic, with this week’s trading range likely to be between the 43750 support and 45050 resistance levels. A break over 45050 might lead to more gains above 45400. If the rising trend continues, the ideal purchasing zones would be between 44430 and 44220, assuming the 43900 barrier is not broken and the price does not continue to close and trade below it.
Nasdaq100 (US100):
Support Levels: 20785 / 20915 / 21050 A key support levels in case of additional declines.
Resistance Levels: 21560 / 21670 / 21800 / 21950 A break of this level could signal the beginning of a robust upward trend.
Latest Outlook: Last week’s market opening saw the index fall sharply and directly to 20622. However, it eventually recovered and climbed back to the 21840 level. Despite the improvement, many keeping an eye on the index were left feeling apprehensive.
Weekly Outlook:
The general trend continues optimistic, with the weekly trading range forecast to be between the 20770 support and 22130 resistance levels. A break over 22130 might lead to more gains, with targets at 22230 and 22350.
The best purchasing zones are now between 21290 and 21050, with the goal of reaching the previously specified target levels. This scenario, however, would be rendered meaningless if the 20730 threshold is crossed, resulting in ongoing closures and trading below it.
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Gold (XAUUSD):
Support Levels: 2740 /2750 / 2760
Resistance Levels: 2805 / 2815 / 2825
Latest Outlook: Gold prices rose significantly last week, propelled by strong momentum. This rally resulted in a breakthrough over the previous record, creating a new high of 2817. This weekly advance is regarded as rather robust for gold.
Weekly Outlook: For the sixth week in a row, we describe the gold trend as positive. The weekly trading range lies between the 2750 support and 2820 resistance levels. The most successful purchasing zones are now between 2780 and 2760, with targets of 2808 and 2817. If the 2817 high is broken, the next objective is 2835.
This forecast stays valid as long as the 2750 support level is maintained and prices do not close below it. If 2750 is crossed, the penultimate buying zone before a probable trend reversal would be 2740-2730.
Weekly News
The week of 03/02/2025 to 07/02/2025 presents a new set of developments in the global financial markets. As investors negotiate market fluctuations, crucial indicators and economic data will influence the outlook for various assets. This week, we’ll look closely at market performance, the influence of geopolitical events, and the possibility for growth or turbulence in the coming days. Traders and investors are preparing for another week of strategic choices, balancing cautious optimism and uncertainty.
Monday (03/02/2025):
final Manufacturing PMI: is from S&P Global. This study assesses the performance of the manufacturing industry through surveys of purchasing managers. A value above 50.0 implies expansion, while one below 50.0 suggests contraction. If the actual release exceeds expectations, the currency often gains value. The data is important for analyzing economic health since purchasing managers provide information on production levels, employment, and new orders. Traders pay particular attention to the Flash release since it gives early information, while the complete report arrives a week later and contains more refined data.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI: is a significant economic indicator based on surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. A value above 50.0 implies expansion, while one below 50.0 suggests contraction. Traders pay special attention to the report since it represents business circumstances such as output, employment, and new orders, which provide vital insights into the economy. If real data exceeds expectations, the currency tends to rise.
ISM Manufacturing Prices: is a component of the ISM Manufacturing PMI that measures inflation. It assesses the amount of prices paid by manufacturers for goods and services. A number over 50.0 suggests price increases, whereas a reading below 50.0 indicates price decreases. This data is significant for traders because it serves as an early signal of consumer inflation, representing possible cost increases that might be passed on to consumers.
Construction Spending m/m: tracks the change in the overall amount spent on construction projects. It is issued once a month, usually around 30 days after the end of the previous month. A higher-than-expected outcome is often good for the currency. For March 2025, the previous release was 0.0%, with a 0.3% projection. This data gives information about economic activity and the health of the construction industry.
Wards Total Vehicle Sales: calculates the annualized number of automobiles and trucks sold domestically in the preceding month. It is normally issued one day after the end of each month. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be favorable for the currency since it indicates high consumer confidence. The last release for March 2025 was 16.8 million, with another 16.1 million expected. This statistic represents consumers’ propensity to spend on durable items, suggesting confidence in their financial status.
Tuesday (04/02/2025):
JOLTS Job vacancies: counts the number of job vacancies in the United States (excluding the farming business) for the specified month. It is issued monthly, approximately 35 days after the month’s conclusion. A higher-than-expected result often benefits the currency since it signals a solid labor market. The previous release for March 2025 was 8.10 million, with an estimated 7.88 million. This statistic is an important indication of employment creation, which affects consumer spending and overall economic activity.
Factory Orders m/m: calculates the change in the total value of new purchase orders submitted to manufacturers. It is issued monthly, approximately 35 days after the month’s conclusion. A performance that exceeds the prediction is often beneficial for the currency. The prior update indicated a -0.4% change, with a projection of -0.7%. This statistic is crucial because it indicates the amount of manufacturing activity; higher orders imply that firms will increase output to meet them.
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism: measures consumer sentiment based on a survey of around 1,500 consumers. It is released monthly, typically at the start of the current month, and indicates optimism if above 50.0 and pessimism if below. A result greater than the forecast is positive for the currency. The previous release was 51.9, with a forecast of 53.0. This index reflects consumers’ views on the economy, personal financial outlook, and confidence in government economic policies.
Wednesday (05/02/2025):
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: estimates the estimated change in employment, excluding the agricultural industry and the government, over the preceding month. It is issued monthly, usually on the first Wednesday after the month ends, and provides an early indication of job growth. The report has an influence on currency when the actual figure surpasses the projection. The last release was 122K, with an estimate for 149K. ADP analyzes payroll data from more than 25 million employees.
Trade balance: is the difference in value between imported and exported products and services. A positive balance shows that exports exceed imports. The report is published monthly, about 35 days after the month ends. It affects currency when the actual amount surpasses the projection. The previous report indicated a deficit of $78.2 billion, with a projection of $97.1 billion. Export demand is intimately linked to currency demand, which influences domestic output and pricing.
Final Services PMI: assesses the level of a diffusion indicator using surveys of purchasing managers in the services industry. A value above 50 implies growth, while one below 50 indicates contraction. The report is published monthly on the third business day. The previous update reported a PMI of 52.8, with a prediction of 53.1. This report is a leading economic indicator, representing firms’ perspectives on the economy, including employment, new orders, and pricing. Traders care because it provides information on economic health and market circumstances.
ISM Services PMI: estimates the level of a diffusion indicator using surveys of purchasing managers in the services industry (excluding manufacturing). A value above 50 implies growth, while one below 50 indicates contraction. It is issued every month. The preceding data indicated a PMI of 54.1, with a prediction of 54.2. Traders are interested because it is a leading economic indicator that provides information about the economy’s health, such as employment, production, and pricing.
Thursday (06/02/2025):
Challenger Job cutbacks Y/Y: tracks the number of job cutbacks declared by businesses. A lower actual result than the prediction is often good for the currency. It is issued every month. The prior report indicated a 11.4% growth over the previous year. Although it is preliminary data, it gives insight into labor circumstances, but with little short-term relevance to general employment trends.
Unemployment Claims: counts the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week. A lower actual value than the prediction is usually favorable for the currency. Weekly release. This information is critical for evaluating economic health since consumer spending is inextricably linked to labor market circumstances. The prior report showed 207K claims, with a prediction of 214K. Although it is a trailing indicator, it is actively monitored when the data reaches extremes or when recent patterns must be evaluated.
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q: quantifies the annualized change in labor efficiency for producing goods and services, excluding agriculture. A lower actual result than the prediction is often good for the currency. Quarterly release. This data aids in determining labor-related inflation, as decreasing productivity can lead to greater labor expenses, which are frequently passed on to consumers. The prior data indicated a 2.2% rise, with a projection of 1.8%. The preliminary release has the most influence because of its timeliness.
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q: calculates the annualized change in the price that firms pay for labor, excluding farms. A greater actual result than the prediction is often favorable for the currency. Quarterly release. This statistic is an early indication of consumer inflation since greater labor expenses frequently result in higher pricing for consumers. The prior report indicated a 0.8% gain, with a projection of 3.3%. The preliminary release has the most impact because of its timeliness.
FOMC Member Waller Speaks: refers to Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s public lecture on the future of payments at the Atlantic Council’s Global Headquarters in Washington, DC. Audience questions are expected. As a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from December 2020 to January 2030, his opinions may have an impact on future monetary policy expectations. A more hawkish posture than predicted is usually good for the currency since it implies higher interest rates or tighter monetary policy. Traders actively monitor such occurrences for clues about future Fed actions.
Friday (07/02/2025):
Average Hourly Earnings m/m: calculates the monthly change in salaries paid to employees, excluding the farming business. It is normally issued on the first Friday after the month’s conclusion. A higher-than-expected result is generally favorable for the currency since it indicates growing labor expenses, which can lead to inflation. This is an essential early sign of labor inflation, as firms may pass on increasing wage expenses to customers.
Non-Farm Employment Change: calculates the change in the number of persons employed, excluding the agricultural industry, from the previous month. It is issued once a month, generally on the first Friday following the month’s end. A higher-than-expected result is typically beneficial for the currency, implying strong job creation, which is a crucial driver of consumer spending and overall economic growth. This data is critical for market movements because of its importance and timely dissemination.
Unemployment Rate: the percentage of the overall workforce that is jobless and actively looking for work. It is issued once a month, generally on the first Friday following the month’s end. A lower-than-expected rate often boosts the currency, signaling a stronger employment market. Although a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate gives critical information about the economy’s overall health since consumer spending is directly related to labor market circumstances.
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: a composite indicator calculated from consumer surveys on present and prospective economic situations. Released monthly, usually in the middle of the month, an actual reading higher than the projection is a positive for the currency. The data is available in two versions: preliminary (issued initially, having the greatest impact) and revised (published 14 days later). It’s a key leading indication of consumer spending, which is a primary driver of economic activity.
Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations: estimates the percentage of consumers who expect the price of goods and services to rise over the next 12 months. Released monthly in the middle of the month, the actual number is higher than the projection, which is favorable for the currency. The data is available in two versions: preliminary (issued initially with the biggest impact) and revised (published 14 days later). It indicates consumer expectations for future inflation, which might affect real inflation owing to wage demands.
Final Wholesale Inventories m/m: represents the change in the total value of items held in inventory by wholesalers. Released roughly 40 days after the end of each month, the actual amount being lower than the prediction is a positive for the currency. There are two versions: preliminary (issued initially for maximum impact) and final. It predicts future company expenditure since firms are inclined to buy more things when their inventories are low.
Consumer Credit m/m: measures the change in the total value of outstanding consumer credit with installment payments. A higher actual amount than expected, released roughly 35 days after the end of the month, is favorable for the currency. It represents consumer spending and confidence—rising debt levels suggest that lenders are willing to make loans and customers are confident in their financial situation.
The US market from February 3 to February 7, 2025, will be driven by significant economic data releases such as the US Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings report. Market players will pay special attention to any surprises in job creation and wage inflation, as they signal broader economic health and possible implications for monetary policy. Investors should also pay attention to Federal Reserve officials’ words and consumer mood measures, as they will give further insight into inflation forecasts and future interest rate decisions. Overall, the coming week is a critical chance to assess economic progress and its impact on market mood.
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