By : Green Horizons
Green Horizons U.S. Market Weekly Overview (10/02/2025 – 14/02/2025)
Jordan Daily – As we enter the second week of February, the US financial markets remain molded by a combination of economic data, company results, and shifting investor mood. With inflation fears, Federal Reserve policy adjustments, and geopolitical factors all at play, traders and investors are keeping a careful eye on key indicators that might set the tone for the coming weeks.
This week’s market analysis will focus on the most significant trends, large stock moves, and macroeconomic factors that impacted the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones. Whether you’re an experienced investor or a market enthusiast, this research will give valuable insights to assist you manage the ever-changing financial landscape.
Technical Analysis
- S&P500 (SPX500):
Support Levels: 5875 / 5903 / 5933 A crucial support zone where the index has previously shown resilience.
Resistance Levels: 6040 / 6075 / 6100 Breaking past this level may signal continued upward momentum.
Latest Outlook: We witnessed a sharp movement in this index at the beginning of the previous week, as it rapidly declined from the peak areas down to approximately 5906, touching the bottom of the main ascending price channel it has been following for some time. This area represents a strong support level. As soon as the price reached this level, it quickly rebounded, revisiting areas near the peak once again.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, with this week’s price range expected to fluctuate between the 5890-support level and the 6100-resistance level.
Optimal buying zones are between 5927 – 5875, with an initial target of 6020 and a secondary target of 6090.
Short-term sell opportunities may arise at market opening from the 6050 – 6080 zone, targeting near to the aforementioned buying levels.
Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):
Support Levels: 2200 / 2230 / 2248 The existing support levels in place.
Resistance Levels: 2280 / 2320 / 2345 The index may experience upward momentum if it breaks through this resistance.
Latest Outlook: We also witnessed sharp movements during last week’s market opening, leading to a strong decline in the index with unusual selling pressure. The downturn pushed it close to the 2190 level before it quickly rebounded and climbed back to the 2330 region, eventually settling at 2282 by the close.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, with this week’s price range expected to be between the 2200 support level and the 2350 resistance level.
Optimal buying zones range between 2205 – 2240, targeting 2315.
Short-term sell opportunities may arise at market opening from the 2290 – 2300 zone, targeting 2250.
Dow Jons (US30):
Support Levels: 43870 / 44000 / 44120 A significant support level currently in place.
Resistance Levels: 44650 / 44850 / 45060 A breakout above this level would confirm the upward trend.
Latest Outlook: The Dow Jones Index experienced highly volatile movements at the beginning of last week’s market opening, leading to a sharp and sudden drop to the 43806 level. However, it quickly rebounded and began an upward climb, reaching areas near the recent peak. It was a week filled with clear buying and selling opportunities.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, with this week’s price range expected to be between the 43800-support level and the 45060-resistance level.
The best buying zones are divided into two areas: the first between 44100 – 44220 and the second between 43950 – 43780, targeting 44500 initially and 44880 as a secondary target.
Nasdaq100 (US100):
Support Levels: 20750 / 20935 / 21080 A key support levels in case of additional declines.
Resistance Levels: 21560 / 21750 / 22000 A break of this level could signal the beginning of a robust upward trend.
Latest Outlook: The Nasdaq Index experienced strong and aggressive selling pressure at the opening of last week’s markets, quickly dropping from 21941 to around 20625. This sharp decline of nearly 1300 points was highly significant for the index. However, it soon recovered and rebounded with a proper price action structure, reaching 21845 once again.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend of the index remains bullish, maintaining stability above the 20600 level.
This week’s trading range is expected to be between the 20600-support level and the 22160-resistance level.
The best buying zones are between 21090 – 20870, with an initial target of 21500 and a secondary target of 21800.
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Gold (XAUUSD):
Support Levels: 2775 /2790 / 2825
Resistance Levels: 2870 / 2890 / 2910
Latest Outlook: Gold prices experienced much stronger-than-expected rises during last week’s trading. The price initially dropped at the beginning of the week, touching the strong support area near 2771. However, it quickly rebounded with intense buying momentum, reaching a new peak at 2877.
Weekly Outlook: The overall trend remains bullish, with this week’s price range expected to be between the 2780 support level and the 2900 resistance level.
The best buying zones are between 2825 – 2790, targeting 2900, 2910, and 2924.
Short-term sell opportunities may arise at market opening near the 2870 level, provided the peak is not broken and remains intact. The initial target for selling would be 2840, with a secondary target at 2820.
Weekly News
As we enter the second week of February, the markets are set for another volatile week, with significant data releases and corporate results continuing to influence investor mood. Economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments are likely to have an impact on movements in global markets such as major indexes, commodities, and currencies.
Monday (10/02/2025):
The Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations Index: assesses the percentage of company managers who expect price changes in products and services over the next 12 months, based on a quarterly poll of 300 to 600 managers. Higher-than-expected inflation expectations are generally regarded as favorable for the currency, as they might result in wage rises and possible inflation. This quarterly research gives vital insights into future inflation prospects.
Tuesday (11/02/2025):
The NFIB Small Business: Measures the economic situation of small companies using a composite index obtained from a survey of small company owners. It is released once a month and measures labor markets, sales, capital spending, and inflation. An ‘Actual’ value bigger than the ‘Forecast’ is considered beneficial for the currency. Small companies are defined as autonomous for-profit firms that employ between one and 250 individuals. The previous measurement was 105.1, versus a forecast of 104.6.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell: will appear the Senate Banking Committee on February 11, 2025, to discuss the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. The hearing, which comprises a written speech and a Q&A session, is significant for traders since Powell’s statements frequently hint at future monetary policy, influencing market volatility. A more hawkish approach than predicted has a beneficial impact on the currency. Powell, as chairman of the Federal Reserve, wields considerable power over short-term interest rates and the value of the US currency.
Wednesday (12/02/2025):
The core CPI m/m: measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. It is an essential monthly statistic since it excludes volatile food and energy costs in order to better reflect the underlying inflation trend. A higher-than-expected result is considered beneficial for the currency. The Federal Open Market Committee constantly watches Core CPI because rising inflation frequently leads to interest rate increases, which affect currency value.
The CPI m/m: measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. A higher-than-expected number is typically favorable for the currency, as increasing inflation frequently prompts the central bank to hike interest rates. Because consumer prices account for a significant portion of overall inflation, this data is critical for traders in determining future monetary policy. The CPI is calculated by sampling average prices for various products and services and comparing them to historical levels.
The CPI y/y: reflects the yearly change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. A higher-than-expected result bodes well for the euro, since growing inflation may lead the central bank to hike interest rates. This metric is crucial for traders because consumer prices have a large impact on total inflation, which influences currency valuations. The CPI y/y is calculated by comparing the average prices of various goods and services over a year, and it is one of the few non-seasonally adjusted economic indicators.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell: will testify about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. The testimony typically includes a prepared statement followed by a Q&A session, which can lead to market volatility due to unscripted moments. Traders pay close attention as Powell’s comments on future monetary policy can provide clues about the direction of interest rates, which significantly impact currency value. A more hawkish stance than expected is seen as positive for the currency.
The 10-year Bond: auction assesses the highest yield on 10-year government bonds sold, as well as the bid-to-cover ratio (the number of bids made per bid accepted). It is undertaken on a monthly basis and has no constant impact on the market because it involves both risk and growth. Bond yields are analyzed by traders to determine the market’s expectations for future interest rates. A high bid-to-cover ratio shows robust demand and market liquidity, implying investor confidence.
The Federal Budget Balance: measures the difference between the federal government’s income and spending in the preceding month. A positive value implies a budget surplus, whereas a negative value indicates a deficit. A higher-than-expected outcome is often favorable to the currency. It is issued once a month, usually on the eighth business day after the month has ended. The previous announcement showed a deficit of -86.7 billion, with a projection of -47.5 billion.
Thursday (13/02/2025):
FOMC Member Waller Speaks: refers to Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s lecture at the “A Very Stable Conference” in San Francisco, which centered on stablecoins. Audience questions are expected. As a voting member of the FOMC, his utterances are widely observed by traders for signals on future monetary policy, with more hawkish remarks often benefiting the currency. Waller’s tenure as a voting FOMC member lasts from December 2020 to January 2030.
Core PPI m/m: Measures the change in the price of completed products and services sold by producers, excluding food and fuel. A higher-than-expected outcome is often favorable to the currency. It is released once a month, typically 13 days after the end of the month, and offers information regarding inflation pressures. Food and energy account for around 40% of the total PPI, hence the Core PPI focuses on the underlying inflation trend. It is also known as Core Finished Goods PPI or Core PPI for Final Demand.
PPI m/m: Measures the price change of completed products and services sold by producers. A outcome that exceeds expectations is often beneficial for the currency. This data is released monthly, approximately 13 days after the end of the month, and it acts as a leading indication of consumer inflation. Higher expenses for manufacturers are frequently passed on to customers. It is also known as Finished Goods PPI, Wholesale Prices, or PPI for Final Demand. It sheds light on inflationary patterns.
Unemployment Claims: The number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week. A lower-than-expected outcome is usually favorable for the currency. This data is released weekly, generally on the first Thursday after the weekends, and gives insights on the labor market’s health, which is directly related to consumer spending and overall economic circumstances. Traders care because it can predict economic trends and affect monetary policy decisions.
The 30-year Bond: auction assesses the highest yield on the government’s 30-year bonds, as well as the bid-to-cover ratio, which reflects demand. The monthly results are reported as the highest yield and the bid-to-cover ratio. Traders pay attention to this data because bond yields represent investors’ expectations for future interest rates, whereas the bid-to-cover ratio indicates market liquidity and investor confidence. The auction has no consistent effect, but it does give insight into risk and growth predictions.
Friday (14/02/2025):
Core Retail Sales m/m: measures the change in total retail sales, excluding automobile sales. Released monthly, this data provides a more stable view of consumer spending trends, as automobile sales can be volatile. Traders care about this report because consumer spending is a key driver of economic activity. A higher-than-expected result can signal strong consumer confidence and is typically positive for the currency.
Retail Sales m/m: tracks the change in overall retail sales, which gives a comprehensive picture of consumer spending. It is released once a month and is an important indication of economic activity since consumer spending drives most of the economy. Traders pay attention to this data because a higher-than-expected result indicates robust economic circumstances, which might benefit the currency.
Import Prices m/m: represents the change in the price of imported products and services purchased domestically. It is released once a month and is one of the first indications of inflation, having substantial implications for businesses and people that rely on imported goods. A higher-than-expected result might signal inflationary pressure, which could be beneficial to the currency.
The Capacity Utilization Rate: calculates the percentage of available resources used by manufacturing, mines, and utilities. A higher-than-expected interest rate, released monthly, might be beneficial to the currency. It is a leading indication of inflation because manufacturers may raise prices while operating at full capacity, passing on greater costs to consumers. Previous: 77.6%; forecast: 77.7%.
Industrial Production m/m: represents the change in the inflation-adjusted value of output generated by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A higher-than-expected number, released monthly, is a good sign for the currency. It is a leading indication of economic health because output reacts swiftly to business cycle changes, affecting employment and incomes. Previous: 0.9%; forecast: 0.3%.
Business Inventories m/m: tracks the change in the total value of items held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. A monthly figure that is lower than expected is favorable for the currency. It indicates future company expenditure, as corporations seek to buy more things as stocks diminish. Previous: 0.1%; forecast: 0.1%.
The US market for the week of 10/02/2025 – 14/02/2025 will be characterized by volatility and rising opportunities. With major economic data like CPI, retail sales, and industrial output making their mark, traders and investors must remain watchful and educated. While uncertainty persists in the near term owing to fluctuating inflation forecasts and central bank policies, there are considerable chances to profit from market reactions to these events. By attentively watching these economic signals and altering tactics accordingly, investors may navigate the turmoil and reap significant returns in the following days. Stay prepared, be strategic, and let market moves work in your favor.
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