By : Green Horizons
Green Horizons U.S. Market Weekly Overview (17/02/2025 – 21/02/2025)
Jordan Daily – As we begin a new trading week, traders and Investors are paying close attention to major economic data, business results, and geopolitical developments that might influence market direction. With volatility remaining a major theme, traders and investors must be adaptable in handling both risks and possibilities.
This week’s overview will examine the most recent market trends, sector performances, and technical setups, providing a strategic viewpoint for individuals wishing to profit from short-term price moves while retaining a long-term vision. Will the bulls maintain their momentum, or will market uncertainty lead to another wave of sell-offs? Let’s look at the major forces driving the financial environment.
Technical Analysis
- S&P500 (SPX500):
Support Levels: 6017 / 6040 / 6070 A crucial support zone where the index has previously shown resilience.
Resistance Levels: 6140 / 6170 / 6190 Breaking past this level may signal continued upward momentum.
Latest Outlook: At the beginning of the last week, the index experienced declines, reaching the 6000 level, which presented an optimal buying opportunity targeting the peak. Prices closed near the 6111 level.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend is bullish, with the week’s price range fluctuating between the 5980-support level and the 6140-resistance level.
Any break below the weekly support level could lead to a complete shift in the outlook for the index, prompting the establishment of new positions, whether bearish or bullish.
The optimal buying zone lies between 5990 and 6050, targeting 6140. A breakout above 6140 and sustained stability above this level could pave the way for a move toward 6200.
Additionally, short positions may be considered from these levels under specific conditions or upon receiving signals of a potential price reversal. Caution is always advised, as trend reversals often occur near peak levels.
2- Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):
Support Levels: 2221 / 2235 / 2250 The existing support levels in place.
Resistance Levels: 2295 / 2312 / 2325 The index may experience upward momentum if it breaks through this resistance.
Latest Outlook: The index traded within the range of 2225–2300 during the previous week. At the beginning of the week, it touched the buying zones mentioned in the previous report and has since achieved some of its targets.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend is bullish, with the weekly trading range between the 2220 support level and the 2320 resistance level. The optimal buying zone is currently between 2240 and 2260, targeting 2330 as the primary level and 2360 as a secondary target.
3- Dow Jons (US30):
Support Levels: 43870 / 44000 / 44120 A significant support level currently in place.
Resistance Levels: 44650 / 44850 / 45060 A breakout above this level would confirm the upward trend.
Latest Outlook: Last week’s trading was confined to a narrow range compared to the index’s usual movement, causing some concern and uncertainty among investors and traders.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish; however, the index is currently trading within a downward secondary trend. The weekly trading range is between the key support level at 44,000 and the resistance at 45,070.
Short-term selling positions can be considered for speculation within the 44,700–44,850 zone, targeting small gains.
The optimal buying zone is between 43,700 and 44,050, with an initial target of 45,050. A breakout above this level and sustained trading above it could pave the way for a move toward 45,300-45,700.
4- Nasdaq100 (US100):
Support Levels: 21660 / 21770 / 21850 A key support levels in case of additional declines.
Resistance Levels: 22160 / 22300 / 22480 A break of this level could signal the beginning of a robust upward trend.
Latest Outlook: The index continues to gain momentum, reinforcing a positive outlook. Last week’s trading saw a relatively strong bullish surge, with prices reaching near the 22,100 level.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, with the weekly trading range between the 21,600-support level and the 22,200-resistance level.
The optimal buying zone is between 21,700 and 21,850, with an initial target of 22,150 and a secondary target of 22,330. A breakout above the peak and sustained stability above it will support further upside potential, with a long-term target of 22,625.
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5- Gold (XAUUSD):
Support Levels: 2820 /2850 / 2870
Resistance Levels: 2900 / 2930 / 2945
Latest Outlook: Gold experienced volatile movements during the previous week, driving prices sharply higher, reaching new peak levels at 2941. However, the market quickly reversed on the final trading day, with a somewhat alarming selling momentum, bringing prices down to 2877, and closing near 2882.
Weekly Outlook: Gold has broken the upward trendline it had been following, so caution is essential, as this could create new golden opportunities for both buying and selling.
Selling positions can be considered at the beginning of the week from the 2910–2924 range, with initial targets at 2870 and a secondary target at 2860.
For new buying positions, they would be built near the 2860–2830 zone, provided there are clear signs of a price reversal from these levels, Aiming 2952-2970. Extreme caution is necessary, as the decline may extend below these levels, in which case, we will look for new support levels to guide the next moves for gold.
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Weekly News
As we approach the week of February 17–21, the markets are primed for another wave of volatility. With crucial economic data releases and corporate earnings reports continuing to shape investor sentiment, the coming days will be pivotal. Central bank policies, economic indicators, and geopolitical developments are expected to influence key global markets, including major indices, commodities, and currencies, making it a week to watch closely.
Monday (17/02/2025):
Bank Holiday.
Tuesday (18/02/2025):
The Empire State Manufacturing Index: assesses the economic health of New York’s manufacturing sector through a survey of around 200 local enterprises. A number greater than 0.0 suggests that things are improving, whereas a rating less than 0.0 indicates a decline. It is issued monthly, around the middle of the month. Traders pay special attention to this index since it is a leading indication of overall economic activity, indicating movements in corporate confidence, spending, hiring, and investment. A number over the prediction is usually beneficial for the currency.
The NAHB Housing Market Index: assesses house builders’ attitudes on present and prospective single-family home sales. A value above 50 suggests a favorable perspective, whilst a reading below 50 indicates a negative view. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) releases its monthly, and it is an important statistic for analyzing the health of the housing market. If the actual index surpasses the projection, traders believe this to be a bullish indicator for the currency.
FOMC Member Daly Speaks: refers to Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who participated in a panel discussion at the American Bankers Association’s Community Bankers Conference in Phoenix. Audience questions are expected. As a FOMC voting member (2018, 2021, 2024), her views are keenly observed by traders since they frequently give insight into future monetary policy and interest rate decisions. A more hawkish tone than predicted might be beneficial for the currency.
FOMC Member Barr Speaks: refers to Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr’s presentation on artificial intelligence in the economy and financial stability at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, with audience questions expected. As a FOMC voting member (July 2022 – January 2032), his comments are widely scrutinized by traders for clues about future monetary policy. A more hawkish approach than predicted might boost the currency.
President Trump Speaks: alludes to a joint interview between US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk that will be conducted by Fox News. As a past and current president (January 2017 – January 2021 and January 2025 – January 2029), Trump’s speeches frequently include a wide range of issues, but only those having a direct market impact are listed. Depending on the topic, his words have the potential to affect market mood
Wednesday (19/02/2025):
Building Permits: Measures the yearly number of new residential construction permits issued in the preceding month. It is released monthly, usually on the 12th business day after the end of the month, and acts as an important indication of future building activity. A higher-than-expected number is usually beneficial for the currency. Traders frequently monitor this data since acquiring a permit is one of the first stages in new building development.
Housing Starts: Measures the yearly number of new residential structures that began construction in the preceding month. This data, which is released on the 12th business day of each month, is highly observed as a leading indication of economic health. A higher-than-expected outcome is usually good for the currency. Housing beginnings frequently follow building permits, which must be obtained before work can begin. This data demonstrates the economic impact of construction operations, such as employment generation and demand for construction-related services.
FOMC Meeting Minutes: give a full record of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, shedding light on the economic and financial variables that affected their interest rate decision. A more hawkish tone than predicted, released eight times every year and three weeks following the Federal Funds Rate decision, is often favorable for the currency. Traders pay close attention to these minutes for hints regarding future monetary policies.
Thursday (20/02/2025):
Unemployment Claims: Measures the number of people who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week. A lower-than-forecast number, which is released weekly on the first Thursday after the week closes, is generally favorable for the currency. While it is a lagging indicator, it gives useful information on economic health since unemployment rates are directly related to consumer spending and monetary policy choices.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Measures the level of a diffusion index using manufacturer surveys in Philadelphia. A higher-than-forecast number, released on the third Thursday of each month, is typically beneficial for the currency. Readings greater than 0.0 indicate improving circumstances, while readings less than 0.0 indicate deteriorating conditions. Traders are interested because it is a leading indication of economic health, reflecting company attitude and predicting future economic actions such as spending, hiring, and investment.
The CB Leading Index m/m: Measures the change in a composite index based on ten economic variables. A higher-than-expected number, released around 20 days after the end of the month, is favorable for the currency. This index is intended to anticipate the direction of the economy but has a limited influence because the majority of the indicators utilized have already been disclosed. It is based on a set of variables including employment, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, credit trends, and interest rate spreads.
Friday (21/02/2025):
The Flash Manufacturing PMI: The level of a diffusion index is measured using a poll of buying managers in the manufacturing industry. It is issued monthly, around three weeks into the current month. A value more than 50.0 implies industrial expansion, whilst a reading less than 50.0 suggests decline. The Flash version, which was released first, typically has the greatest impact. Traders like this indicator because it gives early insight into economic circumstances based on buying managers’ perspectives, including employment, production, new orders, and supplier deliveries.
The Flash Services PMI:The level of a diffusion index is measured using a poll of buying managers in the manufacturing industry. A value more than 50.0 implies industrial expansion, whilst a reading less than 50.0 suggests decline. The Flash version, which was released first, typically has the greatest impact. Traders like this indicator because it gives early insight into economic circumstances based on buying managers’ perspectives, including employment, production, new orders, and supplier deliveries.
Existing Home Sales: Measures the yearly number of residential structures sold in the preceding month, excluding new development. It is issued monthly. A higher-than-expected result is good for the currency. This indicator is crucial for traders since it indicates economic health, as house sales have a knock-on impact in other industries such as renovations, mortgages, and brokerage transactions. The data is given yearly by multiplying the monthly amount by twelve.
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: Measures consumer confidence via a poll of around 800 people, with an emphasis on present and future economic situations. A higher-than-expected outcome is good for the currency. This index is significant for traders because it measures financial confidence, which is a leading predictor of consumer spending, a crucial driver of economic activity.
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations: The percentage of customers who expect the price of products and services to change in the next 12 months. A higher-than-expected outcome is good for the currency. This indicator is essential for traders because future inflation expectations can impact actual inflation, especially when workers expect greater salaries as prices rise.
The week of February 17-21, 2025, is a critical period for market participants. As volatility rises and significant economic data is released, the astute investor has a rare chance to parlay market reactions into winning trades. With careful study, smart positioning, and a sharp eye on altering economic signals, this week has the potential to provide significant gains. Stay ahead of the curve, trust your approach, and seize the possibilities that volatility presents. The market is ready for anyone willing to grasp it.
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