By : Green Horizons
Green Horizons U.S. Market Weekly Overview (03/03/2025 – 07/03/2025)
Jordan Daily – The U.S. financial markets enter the first week of March with a mix of caution and opportunity as investors assess key economic data, Federal Reserve signals, and corporate developments. Volatility remains a defining feature, driven by shifting interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and sector-specific momentum.
In this week’s report, we analyze market trends, highlight potential trading opportunities, and break down the factors shaping the movements of major indices, and commodities. Whether you’re navigating short-term fluctuations or seeking long-term positioning, our insights will help you stay ahead in an evolving market landscape.
Let’s dive into the key themes and trading opportunities for the week ahead.
Technical Analysis
- S&P500 (SPX500):
Support Levels: 5800 / 5830 / 5875 A crucial support zone where the index has previously shown resilience.
Resistance Levels: 5955 / 6000 / 6035 Breaking past this level may signal continued upward momentum.
Latest Outlook: The index prices declined during last week’s trading, with strong selling pressure driving a sharp drop. However, prices reached the optimal buying zone mentioned in the previous report and successfully achieved the targets. The market touched the 5,840 level, leading to a direct rebound towards the 5,950 area.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, with some relatively deep price corrections. The weekly trading range is between the 5,795 support level and the 6,005 resistance level. The optimal buying zones are 5,845–5,865. Short-selling opportunities may be considered at the market opening from the 5,955–5,975 range, targeting the mentioned buying zones.
2- Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):
Support Levels: 2070 / 2100 / 2135 The existing support levels in place.
Resistance Levels: 2175 / 2200 / 2230 The index may experience upward momentum if it breaks through this resistance.
Latest Outlook: During last week’s trading, prices reached a strong daily support zone, leading to a swift rebound that pushed prices to the 2,160 level.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, with ongoing price corrections within a descending secondary trend. The weekly trading range is between the 2,070 main support level and the 2,200 resistance level. The optimal buying zones are 2,095–2,140, targeting 2,200 first, followed by 2,250.
3- Dow Jons (US30):
Support Levels: 43000 / 43150 / 43380 A significant support level currently in place.
Resistance Levels: 43900 / 44220 / 44530 A breakout above this level would confirm the upward trend.
Latest Outlook: We witnessed relatively strong declines in the Dow Jones Index, bringing prices close to the 43,100 level.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, while the index continues to move within a descending secondary trend. The weekly trading range is between the 43,000 support level and the 44,400 resistance level. The optimal buying zones are 43,300–43,440, targeting the previous peak.
4- Nasdaq100 (US100):
Support Levels: 19860 / 20250 / 20560 A key support levels in case of additional declines.
Resistance Levels: 21200 / 21500 / 21850 A break of this level could signal the beginning of a robust upward trend.
Latest Outlook: Nasdaq index prices declined from the peak area, leading to a drop near the 20,440 level.
Weekly Outlook:
The overall trend remains bullish, while the index is currently trading within a descending secondary trend. The weekly trading range is between the 19,860 support level and the 21,600 resistance level. The optimal buying zones are 20,100–20,400, with an initial target of 21,100 and a secondary target of 21,600.
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5- Gold (XAUUSD):
Support Levels: 2750 /2785 / 2830
Resistance Levels: 2885 / 2915 / 2935
Latest Outlook: Gold prices witnessed relatively strong declines, accompanied by intense selling pressure, which led to a drop below the 2900 level, reaching the 2830 zone, before the markets closed at 2857.
Weekly Outlook:
We observe that gold has broken the long-standing upward trendline, reinforcing a bearish weekly close. However, key decision points remain, which we will monitor to determine the next movement.
Simply put, the optimal buying zones at the market opening are 2830–2845, with an initial target of 2875 and a secondary target of 2890. From these levels, close monitoring is required to define the next trend. A clear breakout above 2895 and stability above this level would pave the way toward 2920, and breaking it with sustained stability would confirm a new bullish trend for gold.
On the selling side, short positions can be considered from the 2885–2900 range, targeting 2800. 2905 – 2920, targeting 2885 – 2865, A decisive break below 2830 and stability beneath this level would open the path to the support levels mentioned above.
Weekly News
As we enter the week of February 24–28, the markets are set for another surge of volatility. With important economic reports and corporate earnings continuing to impact investor sentiment, the upcoming days will play a critical role. Central bank decisions, key economic data, and global geopolitical events are expected to drive movements in major indices, commodities, and currencies, making this week one to closely monitor.
Monday (03/03/2025):
The Final Manufacturing PMI: is a monthly economic indicator compiled from a survey of around 800 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A value above 50.0 implies industrial expansion, while one below 50.0 suggests recession. The previously published Flash version has a greater commercial impact. A higher-than-expected PMI is good for the currency since it indicates economic growth. with the previous and predicted value of 51.6.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI: is a monthly economic indicator compiled from a survey of around 300 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A value more than 50.0 implies industrial expansion, whilst a reading less than 50.0 suggests decline. A higher-than-expected PMI boosts the currency, indicating economic expansion. Businesses respond fast to market conditions, making it an important indication of economic health. with a previous result of 50.9 and a prediction of 50.6.
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Index: is based on a poll of around 300 purchasing managers and tracks price changes in the manufacturing sector. A number over 50.0 suggests price increases, whereas a reading below 50.0 indicates price decreases. It acts as an inflation barometer since rising business expenditures are frequently passed on to customers. with a previous reading of 54.9 and a prediction of 56.2.
Construction Spending m/m: is the monthly change in overall spending on construction projects. A higher-than-expected number is good for the currency since it indicates economic development. The previous number was 0.5%, with a projection of -0.1%, and was released monthly, around 30 days after the end of the month.
Tuesday (04/03/2025):
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index: is based on a poll of 1,500 consumers. A value above 50.0 implies optimism, while one below 50.0 shows pessimism. It evaluates the economic prospects, personal finances, and trust in federal policy. The release date is tentatively set for each month. The previous figure was 52.0, with a prediction of 53.1.
Wednesday (05/03/2025):
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: measures monthly job growth excluding agricultural and government jobs. It is released on the first Wednesday after the end of the month and gives an early look at job trends prior to official government statistics. Higher-than-expected statistics are good for the currency. ADP analyzes payroll data from more than 25 million employees. The previous measurement was 183K, with a prediction for 144K.
The Final Services PMI: Based on a poll of 400 purchasing managers, this study assesses business conditions in the service industry. A value above 50.0 implies expansion, while one below 50.0 suggests contraction. It is released on a monthly basis and follows the Flash PMI, which has a larger market effect. Higher-than-expected earnings are good for the currency. The previous and anticipated values both equal 49.7.
The ISM Services PMI: Based on a poll of 300 purchasing managers, this study assesses business conditions in the service industry. A value above 50.0 implies expansion, while one below 50.0 suggests contraction. It is released monthly and is an important indication of economic health. Higher-than-expected earnings are good for the currency. The previous figure was 52.8, with a prediction of 53.0.
Factory Orders m/m: tracks the monthly change in new purchase orders made with manufacturers. It is an important metric of production activity since higher orders imply greater manufacturing output. It is released around 35 days following the end of the month and includes updated Durable Goods data as well as new non-durable goods data. Higher-than-expected earnings are good for the currency. The previous value was -0.9%, and the projection is 1.5%.
The Beige Book: is a report on local economic circumstances that draws on anecdotal material from the 12 Federal Reserve banks. Released eight times per year, it assists the FOMC in formulating interest rate decisions but has little market influence because the Green Book and Blue Book are more significant. A more hawkish assessment is good for the currency.
Thursday (06/03/2025):
Challenger Job cutbacks: Track the yearly change in declared job cutbacks by businesses. Lower-than-expected data, which are normally released on the first Thursday after the end of the month, are beneficial for the currency. While this is early labor market data, it has a low short-term association with overall employment patterns.
Unemployment Claims: Keep track of the number of first-time submissions for unemployment benefits each week. Lower-than-expected claims, which are released every Thursday, are good news for the currency. While considered a lagging indicator, it sheds light on labor market health and consumer spending patterns. The influence varies, with more attention amid economic instability or severe readings. Previous: 242K; forecast: 236K.
Revised Nonfarm Productivity: calculates the annualized change in worker efficiency excluding the farming sector. A lower-than-expected figure, released quarterly and around 65 days after the quarter finishes, is favorable for the currency. It affects labor expenses and inflation since reduced productivity might result in higher pay and consumer prices. The preliminary report, which was issued earlier, has a higher market impact. Previous: 1.2%; forecast: 1.2%.
Revised Unit Labor Costs: calculates the annualized change in labor costs for firms, excluding agriculture. A higher-than-expected result is good for the currency. This report is released quarterly, around 65 days after the end of the quarter, and follows the Preliminary edition, which has a higher market effect. Previous: 3.0%; forecast: 3.0%.
Trade balance: is the difference between the value of imports and exports. A higher-than-expected outcome is good for the currency. Monthly releases occur around 35 days following the end of each month. A positive balance suggests that exports exceed imports. Previously: -98.4 billion; forecast: -93.1 billion.
Final Wholesale Inventories: Determine the change in the value of items held by wholesalers. A lower-than-expected result is positive for the currency. Monthly releases occur around 40 days following the end of the month. The preliminary release has a larger influence. Previous: 0.7%; forecast: 0.7%.
Friday (07/03/2025):
Average hourly earnings: calculate the monthly change in labor expenses, excluding the farming sector. A higher-than-expected outcome is good for the currency. Monthly releases are normally made on the first Friday after the end of the month. It acts as an early predictor of consumer inflation. Previous: 0.5%; forecast: 0.3%.
Non-Farm Employment: Change measures monthly job growth that excludes the farming sector. A higher-than-expected outcome is good for the currency. Monthly releases are normally made on the first Friday after the end of the month. It has a huge influence on the market because employment growth increases consumer spending. Previous: 143K; forecast: 156K.
The Unemployment Rate: is the percentage of jobless people actively looking for work. A lower-than-expected rate is good for the currency. Monthly releases are normally made on the first Friday after the end of the month. It indicates general economic health and influences monetary policy. Previous: 4.0%; forecast: 4.0%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments might generate market volatility as traders look for future interest rate indications. A more hawkish tone is good for the currency. As chairman of the Federal Reserve, he wields tremendous power over monetary policy and the economy.
Consumer Credit: tracks the monthly change in outstanding installment-based debt. Higher-than-expected statistics imply high consumer confidence and expenditure, which bodes well for the currency.
As market volatility lingers, strategic insights and agility are critical for managing the next week. Green Horizons continues to watch major economic data and market movements, looking for chances to make educated decisions. Keep up with our professional research and profit on emerging market trends.
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