By : Green Horizons
Green Horizons U.S. Market Weekly (17/03/2025 – 21/03/2025)
Jordan Daily – The US financial markets are approaching a critical period, with more volatility creating possibilities in equities, indexes, and commodities. As investors traverse significant economic data releases, Federal Reserve signals, and global market effects, the following days will be critical in picking high-probability bets.
This Green Horizons Weekly Overview examines current market sentiment, technical patterns, and probable catalysts influencing price movement. Whether you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor, knowing these dynamics is critical for maximizing on both risk and profit in the present environment.
Technical Analysis
- S&P500 (SPX500):
Support Levels: 5434 / 5480 / 5515 A crucial support zone where the index has previously shown resilience.
Resistance Levels: 5671 / 5705 / 5743 Breaking past this level may signal continued upward momentum.
Weekly Outlook:
The general trend is bearish, with the market expected to move within a range between the support level of 5,430 and the resistance level of 5,750 for the week.
Buying opportunities may arise at market opening from the 5,550 – 5,575 zone, targeting the upper resistance levels.
Selling opportunities could form around the 5,700 – 5,750 zone, with an initial target of 5,600, extending down to 5,450.
2- Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):
Support Levels: 1920 / 1944 / 1962 The existing support levels in place.
Resistance Levels: 2090 / 2070 / 2045 The index may experience upward momentum if it breaks through this resistance.
Weekly Outlook:
The general trend is bearish, with the market expected to move within a range between the support level of 1,930 and the resistance level of 2,100 for the week.
Selling opportunities are in the 2,060 – 2,080 zone, targeting an initial level of 1,971, with a potential extension to 1,930.
3- Dow Jones (US30):
Support Levels: 40400 / 40700 / 40920 A significant support level currently in place.
Resistance Levels: 42250 / 42500 / 42812 A breakout above this level would confirm the upward trend.
Weekly Outlook:
The general trend is bearish, with the market expected to move within a range between the support level of 40,000 and the resistance level of 42,800 for the week.
Selling opportunities are in the 42,400 – 42,700 zone, targeting an initial level of 40,700, with a potential extension to 39,800.
4- Nasdaq100 (US100):
Support Levels: 17970 / 18300 / 1861 A key support levels in case of additional declines.
Resistance Levels: 20050 / 20350 / 20690 A break of this level could signal the beginning of a robust upward trend.
Weekly Outlook:
The general trend is bearish, with the market expected to move within a range between the support level of 17,950 and the resistance level of 20,900 for the week.
The best selling opportunities are in the 20,350 – 20,700 zone, targeting an initial level of 19,520, with a potential extension to 18,800.
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5- Gold (XAUUSD):
Support Levels: 2900 /2935 / 2965
Resistance Levels: 2995 / 3010 / 3025
Weekly Outlook:
Gold Continues Its Strong Rally Towards $3,005 – Is a Deep Correction Imminent, or Is There More Room for Upside?
🔸 General Trend: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, and at this stage, it is premature to assume otherwise. However, in this analysis, we will highlight the potential correction, identifying ideal selling and buying zones along with their respective targets.
🔻 Current Selling Zones
🚨 Strong Selling Zone: $3,000 – $2,987
🎯 This zone targets the following levels:
✅ $2,965
✅ $2,955
✅ $2,945
✅ $2,935
⚠️ Condition for Downward Movement: A break below the $2,980 – $2,977 range could lead to further corrective movement.
🔹 Ideal Buying Zones
💰 Strong Support Zones for Buying:
🔹 $2,959 – $2,950
🔹 $2,945 – $2,935
🔹 $2,930 – $2,920
📉 While the possibility of gold reaching $2,900 is very low, it would present the best entry point for buying, with the following targets:
$2,980
$3,000 $3,032
🔄 When Does the Technical Outlook Change?
🔹 The bearish outlook becomes invalid if gold breaks and stabilizes above $2,990 📊
🔹 The bullish outlook would change only if gold breaks below $2,920 and remains beneath this level
Disclaimer: This analysis does not include intraday trading positions and is intended for traders with a medium- to long-term technical outlook.
Monitor the market carefully and manage risk wisely!
Weekly News
Investors are expected to react to major economic data and business results during the week of March 17-21, causing increased market volatility. Central bank decisions, crucial financial data, and global geopolitical developments will all influence price activity in major indices, commodities, and currencies. With these dynamics in play, traders and investors must negotiate a volatile terrain rife with chances and hazards.
Monday (17/03/2025):
Core Retail Sales m/m: Measures the monthly change in retail sales value, omitting vehicles to prevent volatility. A higher-than-expected result is good for the currency. It acts as an important indication of consumer spending, which fuels economic activity. With a prediction of 0.3% / formerly -0.4%.
Retail Sales m/m: measures the monthly change in total retail sales, which is a crucial indication of consumer spending. A higher-than-expected figure boosts the currency. It gives an early and wide snapshot of consumer activity, with a projection of 0.6% vs -0.9% previously.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index: Measures business conditions using a survey of New York manufacturers. A score over 0 signifies expansion, whereas a reading below 0 means contraction. A higher-than-expected outcome is good for the currency. It is released in the middle of the month and is considered a leading economic indicator. with a prediction of -1.9/previous: 5.7.
Business Inventories m/m: Measures the monthly change in inventory value for producers, distributors, and retailers. A lower-than-expected number is good for the currency. It forecasts future company spending trends. with a projection of 0.3% compared to -0.2% previously.
The NAHB Housing Market Index: Home builder sentiment is measured via a poll of around 900 builders. A value above 50 implies a good attitude, whilst a reading below 50 indicates a negative one. A higher-than-expected outcome benefits the currency. Released in the middle of the month, with a prognosis of 42.
Tuesday (18/03/2025):
Building Permits: Monitor the yearly number of new residential permits issued, which serves as a leading predictor of future building activity. A higher-than-expected result is good for the currency. Monthly release, with a projection of 1.47 million. Previous: 1.47 million.
Housing Starts: Measure the yearly number of new residential structures that have begun construction, which is a crucial economic indicator. A higher-than-expected result is good for the currency. with a projection of 1.38 million / previously: 1.37 million.
Import Prices m/m: Measure the monthly change in the price of imported goods and services, which influences inflation. A higher-than-expected result is good for the currency. with a projection of -0.1% compared to the prior 0.3%.
The Capacity Utilization Rate: Measures the proportion of resources consumed by manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A higher-than-expected result is good for the currency. It’s an important inflation indicator since increased use can lead to price rises. with a prediction of 77.8%/previous: 77.8%.
Industrial Production m/m: Measures the change in inflation-adjusted output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A higher-than-expected figure boosts the currency. Production changes with the business cycle, making it an important indication of economic health. with a prediction of 0.2% and a prior estimate of 0.5%.
Wednesday (19/03/2025):
The Federal Funds Rate: is the overnight interest rate at which banks lend their reserves to one another. A greater rate boosts the currency. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) determines the rate, which is released eight times each year. with a projection of 4.50% / prior: 4.50%. Traders are more focused on the FOMC announcement, which gives insight into future policy moves.
The FOMC Economic Projections: The Federal Reserve’s inflation, GDP, and interest rate forecasts for the next two years are issued quarterly. A more hawkish posture is good for the currency. The report, which was first released in 2011, comprises individual FOMC members’ rate projections. with a projection of 4.50% / prior: 4.50%. Traders rely on it for information about future monetary policy.
The FOMC Economic Projections: Quarterly reports give estimates for inflation, economic growth, and interest rates for the following two years. A more hawkish view strengthens the currency. This report, issued in April 2011, is the Fed’s primary tool for conveying monetary policy expectations to markets. Also called the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
The FOMC Statement: The Fed’s primary instrument for explaining monetary policy is the FOMC statement, which is issued eight times each year. It covers the interest rate decision, policy actions, and economic forecast, which provide insights into future rate adjustments. Traders pay close attention to any phrase adjustments. A more hawkish tone is good for the currency.
The FOMC Press Conference: The Fed Chair leads the meetings, which are conducted eight times a year and involve a written statement followed by a Q&A session. It gives information on monetary policy, economic circumstances, and future rate choices. Unscripted replies frequently create market volatility. A more hawkish tone is good for the currency.
TIC Long-Term Purchases: Determine the net difference between foreign purchases of US long-term securities and US purchases of foreign securities. Higher numbers reflect significant foreign investment in the United States, which benefits the currency. Monthly releases occur around 45 days following the end of each month.
Thursday (20/03/2025):
Unemployment Claims: Every week, count how many people apply for unemployment benefits for the first time. Lower-than-expected claims are good for the currency. Weekly release. It gives early information on labor market circumstances and economic health.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: assesses the manufacturing conditions in Philadelphia. A number over zero implies improvement, whereas a reading below zero suggests deterioration. Higher-than-expected earnings are good for the currency. It is a leading indication of economic health, indicating company mood toward spending, hiring, and investing.
The Current Account: calculates the net flow of products, services, income, and transfers. A higher-than-expected value is good for the currency. It affects currency demand since an increasing surplus implies higher foreign purchases of the native currency.
Existing Home Sales: Determine the yearly number of residential properties sold, excluding new development. A higher-than-expected value is good for the currency. It is a leading economic indicator, influencing industries such as mortgages, renovations, and brokerage services.
The CB Leading Index: Determine the yearly number of residential properties sold, excluding new development. A higher-than-expected value is good for the currency. It is a leading economic indicator, influencing industries such as mortgages, renovations, and brokerage services.
Friday (21/03/2025):
FOMC Member John Williams will speak: during the Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference in Nassau, with audience questions anticipated. As a major voting member, his words may shed light on future monetary policy. A more hawkish tone is good for the currency.
To summarize, being updated about important economic data and Federal Reserve announcements is critical for successfully navigating the financial markets. Each report, statement, and speech contain vital information on economic trends, monetary policy direction, and possible market moves. Understanding these characteristics enables investors and traders to make better judgments, manage risks effectively, and capitalize on opportunities in an ever-changing economic landscape.
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