Green Horizons US Markets Weekly Report

12/01/2025

By : Green Horizons

Green Horizons US Markets Weekly Report

13/01/2025 – 17/01/2025

Jordan Daily – This week, the US financial markets are poised to reflect a confluence of critical economic indicators, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments. As the first-quarter momentum builds, investors will closely monitor inflation data, central bank updates, and the performance of key sectors to assess the trajectory of the broader economy. With significant earnings reports and market-moving events on the horizon, this week’s analysis provides insights into the trends shaping market sentiment and potential investment strategies.

This report provides a forward-looking analysis of potential market trends and critical areas to watch, offering insights into the factors that may shape trading activity throughout the week. Stay ahead of the curve with our detailed outlook on the opportunities and risks in the financial markets.

Technical Analysis

S&P500 (SPX500):

Support Levels: 5702 / 5743 / 5784 A key support levels where the index previously demonstrated stability.

Resistance Levels: 5861 / 5893 / 5921 Surpassing this level could indicate further bullish momentum.

Latest Outlook: We have observed a clear decline in this index, which is considered one of the most significant American indicators. The downturns started during last week’s trading, beginning from the critical level of 5925 and reaching 5816.

Currently, it is essential to closely monitor prices, as they remain in a downward secondary trend. This trend can be considered corrective as long as prices trade above the 5700 level.

Weekly Outlook: If prices stabilize above the 5807 level and resume an upward trend by breaking the 5865 level and sustaining trading above it, this would signal the end of the corrective decline and the beginning of building buying positions within the 5800–5840 range, targeting levels of 5925 and extending to 5975.

On the other hand, if prices continue to decline and break the 5796 level with sustained trading below it, this would signal further bearish movement and opportunities for selling from the 5840 range, extending to 5875, gradually targeting the previously mentioned support levels.

The 5700–5730 range remains the strongest buying zone if the decline persists and prices reach these levels. An initial target would be 5780, extending to 5840.

Additionally, the 5750 level is considered a very strong support zone, which could potentially halt the decline and reverse the trend back to an upward direction.

Extreme caution is advised if the 5700 level is breached, as this would indicate a significant risk of deeper bearish moves.

Russell 2000 (RUSS2000):

Support Levels: 2167 / 2131 / 2085 The current support levels in place.

Resistance Levels: 2230 / 2257 / 2300 The index could gain upward momentum if it surpasses this barrier.

Latest Outlook: The index experienced a relatively strong decline, causing prices to drop sharply from the 2300 level to reach 2180.

This decline can also be considered corrective as long as prices remain above the 2167 level.

Weekly Outlook: If prices rise back to the 2250 level, break it, and close above it, this would signal the end of the decline and indicate a potential resumption of the upward movement. This would create opportunities to build buying positions within the 2170–2200 range, targeting levels of 2240, extending to 2300.

If prices continue to decline and break the 2167 level with sustained trading below it, this would signal further downward movement and the potential for building selling positions from the 2170–2190 range, with an initial target of 2132, extending to the previously mentioned support levels.

If prices take a more corrective downward direction, strong buying opportunities could emerge from the 2070–2100 range, with initial targets at 2160, then extending to 2200. However, it is essential to monitor price movements closely, watch for signs of upward momentum before start build positions, and ensure that the 2066 level is not breached.

Dow Jones (US30):

Support Levels: 41475 / 41660 / 41815 A strong support level at present.

Resistance Levels: 42450 / 42590 / 42730 Breaking through this level would confirm the uptrend.

Latest Outlook: The Dow Jones index has experienced significant declines during the past few weeks, which led to a drop reaching the 41840 level. We had previously highlighted this decline and mentioned that the key level to determine whether the current corrective decline will continue or if the index will enter a completely new downward trend is the 41650 level.

Weekly Outlook: The index is still under relatively strong selling pressure. To shift the outlook to a more positive one, prices must break the 42200 level and sustain trading above it. Afterward, monitoring price movements closely and breaking the 42600 level will provide opportunities to build buying positions within the 42000–42200 range, targeting initial levels of 42800, extending toward the higher resistance zones.

The best buying zones, if prices show strong upward movement and clear signs of a reversal, are the 41650–41780 range.

If prices continue to decline and break the 41650 level with a close below it, this would indicate further sharp downward movement, potentially reaching initial levels of 41500, extending to 40850. If this scenario materializes, selling positions should be considered in the 41680–41900 range, targeting the mentioned lower levels, provided that the 42100 level is not breached and sustained above it.

Nasdaq100 (US100):

Support Levels: 20320 / 20520 / 20700 A critical support level in the event of further declines.

Resistance Levels: 20980 / 21150 / 21350 Breaking this level could indicate the start of a strong upward trend.

Latest Outlook: We have witnessed significant price declines on the Nasdaq index, which led to a drop reaching the 20650 level. Up until now, we can consider this decline as a corrective move, as long as prices remain above the 20585 level.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Green Horizons Velocity ltd (@ghvatech)

Weekly Outlook:

The index is currently experiencing strong selling pressure. To shift the outlook to a bullish scenario, a break above the 20955 level with sustained closes above it, followed by the 21130 level, is required. At this point, buying opportunities can be formed within the 20660–20830 range, targeting levels of 21200, extending to 21400.

If prices continue their downward movement and break below the 20600 level with sustained closes below it, selling opportunities can be formed in the 20700–20830 range, targeting levels of 20500, extending to 20320. This scenario requires the 20950 level not to be broken and sustained above it.

Gold (XAUUSD):

Support Levels: 2645 /2663 / 2680

Resistance Levels: 2692 / 2706 / 2725

Latest Outlook: Gold has experienced strong increases compared to its recent activity. Prices surged sharply from the 2660 level, reaching as high as 2697. As we have been providing clear, simple, and straightforward gold analysis for weeks, our outlook has been positive for the past two weeks, and the upward targets previously mentioned have been achieved.

Weekly Outlook: Simply put, the overall trend remains positive. As long as gold stays above the 2684 level, it will continue its upward movement, reaching 2701 and extending towards 2729.

If the 2684 level is broken and remains below it, selling positions can be initiated between 2690-2702, with an initial target at 2674 and extending to 2665. Any support level mentioned above, if broken and closed below, will drive the price towards the next support zone.

At the moment, it is preferable not to focus on distant targets for gold, whether for buying or selling, until the next strong trend becomes clearer. A significant price movement is expected, and updates will be provided later. Caution is advised regarding a break below the 2660-2640 levels, as closing below them would signal a potential strong downward price movement.

The optimal buying zones are between 2660-2670, provided that the price does not break or close below 2655. The target levels are 2700-2710.

Caution is also advised regarding a breakout and stabilization above the 2726 level, as this would signal further upward momentum, initially targeting the 2750-2760 range. Breaking and stabilizing above this range would support a move toward the previous peak levels.

Weekly News

Financial markets might be volatile as we go into the week of January 13–17, 2025, due to a number of expected economic data releases, company earnings reports, and geopolitical events. Key levels in major indexes, commodities, and currencies are being actively watched by investors, and incoming developments are likely to cause a shift in market mood.

Monday (13/01/2025):

The Federal Budget Balance: anticipated to show ongoing losses brought on by falling income and growing expenses. With military, Social Security, healthcare, and interest payments rising while individual and corporate tax collections are declining, the fiscal deficit has increased by 64% year over year in recent years. While a smaller deficit could increase trust in fiscal management, a larger than anticipated deficit might devalue the US currency.

Tuesday (14/01/2025):

NFIB Small Business Index: Describe the mood of small businesses in December 2024. This indicator gauges small firms’ expectations and confidence in relation to capital expenditures, labor markets, sales, and economic circumstances. Because of recent indications of economic resiliency and a slowing rate of inflation, analysts expect the index will show stable or somewhat enhanced optimism. Persistent worries about funding costs and labor shortages, however, may temper optimism.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI): evaluates variations in the prices that producers, excluding food and energy, get for products and services. It serves as a crucial gauge of the underlying forces of inflation. The December 2024 release, which is set for January 14, 2025, is anticipated to demonstrate a 0.2% monthly gain. A lower score might indicate muted inflation and affect market sentiment, while a higher-than-expected figure could indicate inflationary pressure and be beneficial for the US dollar. As anticipated, the prior publication in November showed a 0.2% gain.

Producer Price Index (PPI): assesses shifts in the prices that producers get paid for their products. Monetary policy may be impacted by inflationary pressures indicated by a higher-than-expected PPI. With a 0.2% gain from the previous month, the December prediction points to further inflation. In order to assess inflation patterns and their possible effects on the economy, traders and policymakers will be closely monitoring the real statistics.

The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index: is a monthly study that evaluates consumer mood in the United States by looking at opinions about the future of the economy, individual financial outlooks, and trust in federal economic policy. Pessimism is indicated by a number below 50, whilst optimism is indicated by a reading over 50.
The indicator soared to 54.0 in December 2024, the highest level since August 2021, indicating a rise in consumer confidence.
The score is expected to reach 54.0 in January 2025, showing continued optimism.
This optimistic view implies that consumers expect the economy to be doing well soon.

Wednesday (15/01/2025):

Core CPI m/m: is a crucial index of inflation that tracks changes in the costs of consumer-purchased goods and services, excluding food and energy. The anticipated rise for January 15, 2025, is 0.3%. An increase in the Core CPI indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, which may have an impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and result in stricter measures to control inflation. Inflation patterns will be revealed by the announcement, and a higher-than-expected number would be advantageous for the currency.

The Consumer Price Index m/m (CPI): anticipated to increase its share by 0.3%, same to the previous month. It is also anticipated that the core CPI, which does not include food and energy, would rise by 0.3%. Stable inflationary pressures are suggested by this. The Federal Reserve’s present monetary policy may be supported if actual outcomes are on par with or better than anticipated. Interest rate adjustments may be discussed if the CPI is lower than anticipated. In order to evaluate inflation patterns and their implications for economic policy, investors will be closely monitoring the release.

The Consumer Price Index y/y (CPI): evaluates the typical shift in consumer pricing for goods and services. The year-over-year CPI is predicted to reach 2.9% in January 2025, up from 2.7% in November 2024, indicating a modest rise. With volatile food and energy costs excluded, the Core CPI is expected to stay stable at 3.3%. These numbers may indicate an increase in inflation, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in an effort to reduce inflation. This would have an effect on financial markets and currency values.

Empire State Manufacturing Index: anticipated to be -0.30, indicating a little downturn in the manufacturing sector in New York. The U.S. dollar and market mood may be impacted by a negative rating, which indicates a deterioration in economic circumstances.

Beige Book: Based on anecdotal information from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, this report, which is issued by the Federal Reserve eight times a year, gives a summary of area economic circumstances. January 15, 2025 is the date of the January 2025 release. Compared to other reports that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) uses to make monetary policy decisions, it has a relatively small impact on financial markets, although providing insights into local economic situations. The Beige Book may offer clues for upcoming interest rate decisions and aids in evaluating economic developments.

Thursday (16/01/2025):

The Core Retail Sales m/m: The survey, which tracks changes in retail sales outside of cars and reflects consumer spending patterns, is predicted to increase by 0.5%, signifying faster growth than the previous month. Given that consumer spending makes up a significant amount of economic activity, this data is essential. While a lower result would suggest less consumer activity, a higher-than-expected outcome is good for the US currency.

Retail Sales m/m: study monitors changes in overall retail sales, excluding cars. It is a crucial measure of consumer spending, which powers a large portion of the American economy. The statistics is anticipated to indicate a 0.6% increase for January 2025, indicating a modest increase in consumer expenditure. The U.S. dollar usually benefits from a higher-than-expected outcome, but a lower result can indicate slower economic growth.

Unemployment Claims report: monitors the number of people who, within the last week, filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. A stronger employment market is indicated by a lower actual number than the prediction, which is good for the currency. This data, which is released once a week, is extensively monitored by traders and the Federal Reserve because of its relationship to consumer spending and the state of the economy as a whole. Despite being viewed as a lagging indicator, the report aids in evaluating labor market circumstances, which are important in determining monetary policy. This week’s claims are expected to decline somewhat, indicating that employment is still strong.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: evaluates Philadelphia’s manufacturing activities. A better-than-expected outcome is good for the currency and indicates economic expansion. It provides early insights about investment, expenditure, and company mood and is released once a month. Improvement is indicated by a number over 0.0, and deterioration is shown by a value below it.
projected to be -0.3, which would signal deteriorating business conditions in the Philadelphia area and a little contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Import Prices m/m: evaluates the shift in the cost of domestically acquired imported goods and services. Generally speaking, a higher-than-expected outcome is good for the currency and signals inflationary pressure. A 0.1% increase is predicted for this release, indicating a modest increase in import costs. This information is a crucial gauge of inflation, especially for consumers and companies that depend on imports. February 14, 2025 is the date of the upcoming release.

Business Inventories m/m: evaluates the shift in the overall value of the products that producers, distributors, and retailers have on hand. Since it indicates possible future corporate expenditure once stockpiles are exhausted, a lower-than-expected outcome is usually viewed as favorable for the currency. About 45 days after the end of each month, this data is made public. With a 0.1% increase predicted for this release, inventory levels are expected to slightly increase.

NAHB Housing Market Index: evaluates house builders’ sentiment using a diffusion index. A poll of about 900 house builders who evaluate the state of single-family home sales both now and in the future is the source of the index. A favorable view for house sales is indicated by an index value over 50, and a negative perspective is suggested by a number below 50. Depending on how the actual outcome compares to predictions, the projection for this index will either show a positive or negative outlook. Since it shows trust in the housing market, the actual number surpassing the projection is seen favorably by the currency.

Friday (17/01/2025):

Building Permits: calculates the number of new residential building licenses that were issued in the preceding month on an annual basis. A stronger home market and possible future construction activities are indicated by a higher-than-expected outcome, which is typically favorable for the currency. With a projection of 1.505 million, this data indicates a little rise in construction permits over the previous month.

Housing Starts: tracks the annualized number of new residential construction projects that began the previous month. The expected figure is 1.33 million. A higher actual result is positive for the currency, signaling a stronger housing market. This report is a key economic indicator, reflecting future construction activity and broader economic health.

Capacity Utilization Rate: calculates the proportion of accessible resources that are used by utilities, mining, and manufacturing. 77.0% is the anticipated prediction. The currency usually gains when the actual outcome exceeds the expectation. Due to the possibility of price increases by enterprises approaching capacity, this rate is a leading indication of consumer inflation.

Industrial Production m/m: evaluates the shift in the overall inflation-adjusted value of the output generated by utilities, mining, and factories. For this release, a 0.3% projection is made. In general, the currency benefits when the actual outcome exceeds the projection. Since production levels frequently react quickly to shifts in the business cycle and are intimately related to consumer situations like employment and incomes, industrial output is a crucial economic indicator that reflects the health of the economy.

Key economic data releases are scheduled for the week of January 13–17, 2025, and are anticipated to have an impact on the U.S. financial markets, especially with regard to inflation and output. Market players will be keeping a careful eye on how the next data on building permits, industrial production, and capacity utilization rate match forecasts because these numbers offer information about the state of the economy as a whole and possible inflationary pressure. Any surprises from earnings reports, particularly those from larger companies that have the potential to affect market sentiment, should also be monitored by traders. All things considered; this week’s statistics may offer important hints for determining forecasts regarding the direction of the US economy in 2025.

Feel free to visit our site (www.ghva.tech), or contact us for more.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Jordan Daily, Green Horizons, and any affiliated advertisers disclaim all liability for any decisions made based on this report. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

12/01/2025