By : Green Horizons
Jordan Daily – The US Forex market is expected to see increased volatility as we approach the week of November 18–22, 2024, for a number of important reasons.
The US Dollar (USD) may fluctuate as a result of market sentiment influenced by corporate earnings announcements from big US businesses, such as AECO and Baidu. Further information on the state of the US economy will also be available through the release of economic statistics, such as GDP and inflation reports, which might have an effect on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy position.
In light of these events, traders should monitor market movements closely and employ appropriate risk management techniques to successfully navigate the market action in the upcoming week.
- S&P 500 (SPX500)
Technical Analysis:
- Support Level: 5745 / 5845 – a key support level where the index has stabilized in previous weeks.
- Resistance Level: 5850 / 5780 – breaking this level may indicate further upward momentum.
- Outlook: “We witnessed a decline in index prices during last week’s trading sessions, as we had warned beforehand… Now, the index stands at critical points, separating the continuation of the corrective decline from a potential return to an upward trend and reaching new highs.”
- “The critical pivot point between the rise and fall lies between the levels of 5899-5850. If the index stabilizes below these levels, we are likely to witness further corrective declines.”
- Russell 2000 (RUSS2000)
Technical Analysis:
- Support Level: 2260 / 2300 – the current support floors.
- Resistance Level: 2388 / 2422 – if the index surpasses this level, it may show upward momentum.
- Outlook: “This index experienced a notable corrective decline during last week’s trading sessions; however, at this moment, we are positioned at very pivotal and critical levels”
- “If we see prices stabilizing below the 2300 level, the index will continue its correction to lower levels. This area is pivotal for next week’s trading. Please be cautious of stability below these levels, as it could drive the price toward the 2275 level and potentially extend to 2250.”
- Dow Jons (US30)
Technical Analysis:
- Support Level: 42850 / 43300 – a solid support level currently.
- Resistance Level: 43980 / 44325 – crossing this level would confirm continued upward momentum.
- Outlook: “The Dow Jones index experienced a notable decline during last week’s trading sessions; however, the overall outlook for it remains bullish.”
- “Be cautious of the 43410-43200 range; stability below these levels signals a deeper corrective decline and could potentially push prices down to around 43050. Sustained movement below this level may drive prices further down to the 42470-42150 range. However, any clear stability above the 43450-43700 range could lead us back to peak levels once again.”
- Nasdaq 100 (US100)
Technical Analysis:
- Support Level: 20050 / 20288 – a crucial support if declines occur.
- Resistance Level: 20835 / 21095 – breaking this level could signal a more upward trend.
- Outlook: “Recently, we observed a somewhat significant rise in the Nasdaq index; however, it quickly returned to a corrective phase in response to the rapid and somewhat exaggerated gains.”
- “Our overall outlook for it remains positive and tilted toward an upward trend. However, caution is advised due to sudden fluctuations. Stability below the 20300 level is somewhat risky, indicating a tendency for prices to push further downward. Key levels to watch are 20530-20780; any clear stability above these levels would indicate a bullish inclination.”
Weekly News
News For this week: For news between November 18th and November 22nd, 2024, several major financial and market events are expected:
Monday (November 18, 2024):
- FOMC Member Goolsbee: Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, will launch the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference on November 18, 2024. Key economic indicators including growth, inflation, and unemployment will probably be the main topic of Goolsbee’s address, which will also provide insights into the FOMC’s current outlook on monetary policy and the state of the economy. Analysts anticipate that he will give updates on the possible path of interest rates, which could indicate the Fed’s strategy for controlling inflation and promoting short-term economic stability.
- NAHB Housing Market Index: The most recent mood among U.S. homebuilders toward single-family house sales will be provided by the National Association of house Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for November 18, 2024. This index, which integrates builders’ opinions on present sales circumstances, future sales estimates over a six-month period, and buyer traffic, is a crucial tool for evaluating changes in the housing industry. The October 2024 indicator hit its highest level since June, rising from 41 in September to 43. Optimism on prospective rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which might improve home demand, was credited with this increase. With a 4-point improvement in sales estimates for the next six months and a 2-point gain in present sales circumstances, builder confidence also increased in October. Although the industry is still being impacted by persistently high borrowing rates and affordability issues, builder mood has been improving.
Tuesday (November 19, 2024):
- TIC Long-Term Purchase: Foreign demand for U.S. long-term assets, such as Treasury bonds, is monitored by the TIC Long-Term Purchases report, which is expected on November 19, 2024. Despite rising interest rates, October’s figures showed a positive $111.4 billion, showing robust overseas interest. Since international investors must purchase USD in order to invest in U.S. assets, a good TIC result usually strengthens the U.S. dollar. A drop would indicate waning interest, which would affect currency strength and bond rates. In light of recent changes in international investment flows, the forthcoming study is essential.
- Building Permits: On November 19, 2024, data on construction permits will be made public by the U.S. Census Bureau. The seasonally adjusted annual rate for September was 1.428 million permits, which was a decrease of 2.86% from August and 5.74% from the year before. The drop demonstrates the difficulties facing the housing industry, which are caused by variables including growing loan rates, increasing construction costs, and changing consumer preferences. Given its effects on employment, consumer confidence, and residential investment, this data is crucial for predicting economic activity. Indicators for early 2025 will be monitored by analysts for patterns in forthcoming publications.
- Housing starts: The status of new house building in the face of high mortgage rates and possible labor shortages will be clarified by the U.S. housing starts data. The housing market has proven resilient in spite of these difficulties. The report will show if recent developments may help maintain economic stability or whether the Fed’s cautious approach to interest rates and inflation would likely lead to additional drops. A decline in house starts might be an indication of builders being more cautious as a result of increased borrowing prices and economic uncertainties.
- FOMC Member Schmis Speaks: FOMC member Jeffrey Schmid will discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy in Kansas City, with a particular emphasis on the Fed’s strategy for handling economic downturns while keeping inflation under control. His remarks may shed light on the Fed’s future financial stability and interest rate policies. His speech’s tone might affect currency and financial markets by influencing market expectations for rate increases.
Wednesday (November 20, 2024):
- FOMC Member Cook Speaks: On November 20, 2024, FOMC member Lisa Cook will give a speech about inflation control, interest rates, monetary policy, and the state of the US economy. Her analysis will center on financial market pressures, employment developments, and the Fed’s forecast. Cook’s speech may potentially touch on issues like global financial concerns and economic inequality, which might affect market expectations for the Fed’s short-term policy moves.
- FOMC Member Bowman Speaks: In her address on November 20, 2024, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman is anticipated to talk on the job market, economic growth, and inflation in the United States. She has voiced worries about ongoing inflation, especially in the areas of food, energy, and housing. The job market is still tight and consumer spending is still high even if economic growth has slowed. Bowman advocates for a cautious approach to monetary easing and supports modest rate decreases. This illustrates her conviction that inflation should be controlled while maintaining economic stability.
Thursday (November 21, 2024):
- Unemployment Claims: A change in jobless claims activity was reflected in the initial decline in claims. Compared to the figures from the previous week, the number of first claims submitted decreased dramatically. Significant drops in jobless claims were recorded by states including California, New York, and Texas, indicating that the labor market is still stabilizing. Although some states continue to record greater numbers because of specific circumstances or ongoing economic shifts, this drop in claims is a healthy indication of economic resiliency.
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index exceeded projections, rising substantially from 1.7 in September to 10.3. Despite a modest fall in the employment index, key industries like as new orders and shipping showed significant development. The high prices paid and received indicate that inflation pressures are still present. Overall, the data points to confidence for the manufacturing sector’s future growth, with the majority of indicators indicating positive developments over the next six months.
- FOMC Member Hammack Speaks: Beth M. Hammack, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, will give a speech. Drawing on her vast background in economic policy and leadership within the Federal Reserve system, her remarks are expected to cover financial stability, monetary policy, and economic circumstances. The Fed’s response to financial threats, regional economic developments, and inflation control may be the main topics of discussion.
- Existing Home Sales: According to the November 2024 existing home sales data, total sales were somewhat lower than they were the month before. The overall sales decreased by 12.15% year over year and by 0.57% from September 2024. Regionally, the West witnessed a slight gain of 4.62% from the previous month, while the Northeast saw the worst decline, down 24% from the same month the previous year. When compared to September 2024, the South and Midwest regions saw modest decreases of about 0.64% and 2.30%, respectively.
- CB Leading Index m/m: One important economic indicator that predicts future developments is the **CB Leading Index m/m** for November 2024, which is scheduled for release on November 21. It forecasts the path of the economy by combining a variety of data variables, such as consumer expectations and stock market performance. This indicator forecasts future economic growth or contraction, which aids in decision-making for firms and governments.
- FOMC Member Goolsbe Speaks: On November 21, 2024, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee will give a speech. He may offer clues into future monetary policy in his speech, which is expected to discuss the Fed’s position on inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Since Goolsbee’s comments usually represent the Fed’s continuous evaluation of the major economic factors impacting policy choices, investors will be watching for any indications on tightening measures or the outlook for the economy.
- FOMC Member Hammack Speaks: Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, will give opening comments at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s 2024 Minorities in Banking Forum on November 21, 2024. Although the topic of her speech is yet unknown, her public appearances frequently reveal information about the Federal Reserve’s economic forecast. These talks usually include issues like unemployment, inflation, growth, and possible monetary policy changes, such as future adjustments to the Federal Reserve’s funds rate
Friday (November 22, 2024):
- FOMC Member Barr Speaks: Christopher Waller, the governor of the Federal Reserve, will speak at a gathering in the United States. Nevertheless, the precise subjects and emphasis of his speech are now unavailable. Waller’s public speeches usually touch on topics including economic circumstances, monetary policy, and the Fed’s role in maintaining financial stability. His comments may shed light on the Fed’s stance on the state of the market and the trajectory of interest rates in the future, since he frequently discusses inflation, economic recovery, and policy outlook.
- Flash Manufacturing PMI: A modest decrease in the U.S. is anticipated in the Flash Manufacturing PMI for November 2024, indicating weak demand and slower growth as a result of reduced production and fewer new orders. Europe is seeing similar slowdowns, with France’s PMI showing poor performance. Nonetheless, manufacturing performance is improving in certain areas, such as South Korea and Saudi Arabia, most likely as a result of further modernization and robust exports.
- Flash Services PMI: Although it was somewhat lower than the previous month’s 55.2, the Flash Services PMI for November 2024 showed a score of 55.0, showing ongoing development in the U.S. services industry. According to the index, service growth is still strong but is a little slowing down. Performance across a range of service sectors, including banking, IT, and hospitality, is reflected in this PMI. A number above 50 indicates growth, which bolsters service confidence but also raises the possibility of cooling off from earlier in the year.
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: November 2024’s Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index was 63.0, somewhat higher than 62.6 the month before. This suggests that consumer confidence is steady and that people are cautiously optimistic about the state of the economy going forward. The index provides information on consumer spending patterns that might impact the entire economy by reflecting the general opinion about the state of the economy today and expectations for the future.
- Revised UoM Inflation Expectations: November 2024’s Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Index remained stable at 63.0, little higher than 62.6 the previous month. This indicates a reasonable forecast for the economy and steady consumer confidence. It shows cautious optimism, indicating predictions of future economic circumstances that might impact consumer spending and economic growth, even if it is currently over the neutral 50 threshold.
Many traders are keeping a careful eye on the Fed’s inflation signals, the ECB’s economic forecast, and important inflation data worldwide since these events have the potential to increase volatility. A mixed view for U.S. markets is created by keeping up with these announcements, which are crucial for predicting market movements. Even while the economy appears resilient, inflation and Fed policies could yet cause volatility in the stock and bond markets.
Corporate Earnings
Corporate earnings reports for the week of November 18-22, 2024, can significantly influence the U.S. Forex market by affecting investor sentiment toward the economy. Strong earnings often boost confidence in U.S. stocks, which can lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, while disappointing earnings may cause a decline in the dollar as market participants adjust their expectations for future economic growth. As such, the earnings reports this week could provide crucial signals about economic health and influence currency fluctuations.
AECOM (ACM) – November 18, 2024
Allot Communications (ALLT) – November 19, 2024
Amer Sports (AS) – November 19, 2024
Astronics (ATRO) – November 18, 2024
Atkore (ATKR) – November 21, 2024
Atour Lifestyle (ATAT) – November 19, 2024
ATRenew (RERE) – November 20, 2024
Auna (AUNA) – November 19, 2024
Baidu (BIDU) – November 18, 2024
Baozun (BZUN) – November 21, 2024
Beazer Homes USA (BZH) – November 18, 2024
BellRing Brands (BRBR) – November 18, 2024
Berry Global Group (BERY) – November 20, 2024
Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) – November 18, 2024
BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) – November 21, 2024
Brady (BRC) – November 18, 2024
Cellectar Biosciences (CLRB) – November 18, 2024
Cerence (CRNC) – November 21, 2024
ClearSign Technologies (CLIR) – November 20, 2024
Copa Holdings (CPA) – November 20, 2024
Copart (CPRT) – November 21, 2024
These companies are expected to announce their quarterly earnings during this period.
November 18: Reports from significant consumer goods and services businesses are among the key earnings that might impact USD pairings, particularly those that are associated with consumer mood and spending.
November 19–21: Results from large-cap companies, especially those in the financial and technology industries, will be presented on these days. Tech results can have broad market repercussions, notably for the Nasdaq 100, which substantially influences Forex trading with its big USD-based transactions.
November 22: Final earnings reports may be released on this final day of the week, but traders should also take into account any post-market comments, particularly if large companies announce better-than-expected results, since this might strengthen demand for the US dollar.
Forex traders keep a tight eye on earnings season because better-than-expected results might cause a sell-off in the US dollar, especially in industries that are strongly linked to the overall economy, while better-than-expected results tend to increase investor confidence and support USD strength.
The potential impact of corporate earnings on the U.S. forex market for the week of November 18–22, 2024. Here’s how various companies and sectors could influence market trends:
- Strong earnings in tech and financials: Positively affect the U.S. dollar, signaling economic resilience.
- Weak earnings: Could signal economic slowdown, weakening the dollar.
- Impact of key sectors like consumer goods: Can affect market sentiment toward U.S. economic stability.
- Interest rate expectations: Corporate performance influences Fed decisions on monetary policy, further impacting forex trends.
These earnings reports will drive forex market volatility depending on results.
For the week of November 18–22, 2024, several factors related to corporate earnings, economic indicators, and geopolitical events will likely influence the US Forex market. Here are some general recommendations for Forex traders focusing on the US market during this period:
- Monitor Earnings Reports: As corporate earnings season winds down, traders should watch key earnings reports from major companies such as AECOM, Baidu, and BellRing Brands. Strong earnings could boost investor confidence, strengthening the US Dollar (USD) as it signals a healthy economy. Conversely, disappointing results may lead to USD weakness, especially against major currencies like the Euro (EUR) or the Japanese Yen (JPY).
- Economic Data Releases: Pay attention to any economic reports scheduled for release this week, especially from the US Federal Reserve. Economic indicators such as GDP growth rates, inflation figures, and job reports can provide insights into the overall health of the economy and guide expectations about potential interest rate changes. A stronger-than-expected economic performance could lead to USD appreciation, while weaker data could have the opposite effect.
- Focus on the US Dollar (USD): Given the proximity of key earnings reports and economic data, the USD is likely to remain volatile. Strong corporate earnings and favorable economic indicators could push USD higher. However, political uncertainties or weak earnings reports could lead to market caution and a depreciation of USD. This is especially important for pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD.
- Risk Management Strategy: Due to the heightened volatility around earnings season, traders should consider tightening their stop-loss levels or using smaller lot sizes to manage risk. Corporate earnings can create sharp market moves, so staying vigilant about news and updates is essential for managing risk effectively.
- Geopolitical Events: While not specific to the US, global economic developments—such as geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, or other unexpected events—can significantly affect the US Dollar. Ensure to stay updated with global news that could lead to shifts in market sentiment.
In conclusion, the upcoming week in the US Forex market is likely to bring some volatility. Traders should focus on corporate earnings, economic data, and global events while managing risk prudently.
For more information : https://ghva.tech/
Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Jordan Daily, Green Horizons, and any affiliated advertisers disclaim all liability for any decisions made based on this report. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
