By : Green Horizons
Jordan Daily – Major geopolitical and economic factors will impact the U.S. foreign exchange market during the trading week of November 25–29, 2024. Future U.S. economic reports, further Federal Reserve comments, and global risk appetite in the face of persistent geopolitical uncertainty are expected to receive a large portion of this week’s attention.
The U.S. GDP growth rates, consumer confidence indicators, and any remarks made by the Federal Reserve about prospective interest rate adjustments will also be actively watched by traders. Market reactions will reflect these numbers as well as recent inflationary trends. This article will discuss the key factors that are anticipated to influence the dollar’s outlook during the next week, such as market mood, economic data, and the potential effects of global events on Forex trading.
- S&P 500 (SPX500)
Technical Analysis:
- Support Level: 5840 / 5860 / 5922 – a crucial support level where the index has been steady in last week.
- Resistance Level: 5985 / 6030 – breaking this level may indicate further upward momentum.
- Outlook: “ We have seen this indicator move within a rather small range, but as we stated in our post from last week, we will see more increases if it stabilizes above the 5850–5780 Despite the significant correction we have seen over the previous several weeks, we continue to have a good opinion on it.
We will concentrate on key places this week, including 5920–5940, as its stability above this crucial region allows it to rise further and may be regarded as its intermediate area. Keep an eye on certain places, including breaching 5840, as stability below it will contribute to further correction, while stability above the 6005 regions will show a greater continuation of the increase.”
- Russell 2000 (RUSS2000)
Technical Analysis:
- Support Level: 2274 / 2348 – the current support floors.
- Resistance Level: 2445 / 2422 – if the index surpasses this level, it may show upward momentum.
- Outlook: “We keep an eye on this crucial element since we have observed a decrease in advancements in less than that and an increase in stronger, more attractive, and better performance. Watch out for the critical regions 2355–2377; if these areas are broken and there is stability below them, it indicates a trend for a negative correction. Additionally, stability above them adds to the positive vibes, and if the regions 2427–2445 are broken and stability is maintained above them, we will see further increases in numbers.”
- Dow Jons (US30)
Technical Analysis:
- Support Level: 43300 / 43965 – a solid support level currently.
- Resistance Level: 44480 / 44780 – crossing this level would confirm continued upward momentum.
- Outlook: “Since the review from last week was favorable and the aforementioned levels were attained, this indicator once again hit the peak areas; if it remains stable above the peak, we will see more data for a new high. A downward correction is supported by returning to stability below the 44400 and 43980 zones, so be wary of them.”
- Nasdaq 100 (US100)
Technical Analysis:
- Support Level: 20330 / 20500 – a crucial support if declines occur.
- Resistance Level: 21000 / 21320 – breaking this level could signal a more upward trend.
- Outlook: “Last week’s news and the results of the most significant firm, Nvidia, had an impact on this index. We’ll concentrate on a few important figures, specifically 20800. However, breaking the 20900 numbers gives it the strength to visit its historical peak, and breaking the peak and remaining above it gives it the strength to reach areas roughly 21400 – 21650. If you stay below it for a long time, you will prevent it from rising and give it the strength to correct deeper below.”
Weekly NEWS
News For this week: For news between November 18th and November 22nd, 2024, several major financial and market events are expected:
Monday (November 25, 2024):
- no noteworthy news stories or economic reports are anticipated to have an effect on the U.S. markets.
Tuesday (November 26, 2024):
- S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI y/y: The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index reported a 2% year-over-year (YoY) increase for September 2024, announced on November 26, 2024. This marks a continuation of rising home prices across the covered metropolitan areas but at a slower pace than earlier months. The index’s value rose from 316.00 to 332.42, reflecting strong but stabilizing demand in the U.S. housing market amid broader economic challenges.
- HPI m/m: The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index for August 2024 was 332.42 as of November 25, 2024, up 0.35% from 331.25 in July 2024. With the index hitting a new record high, this suggests that U.S. home values are continuing their upward trajectory.
- CB Consumer Confidence: In November 2024, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped little from 102.6 in October to 102.0 . Although opinions on the state of the economy cooled, there was a little improvement in optimism for the future. Recession risks do, however, still exist since expectations are still below crucial levels.
- New Home Sales:S. new house sales for October 2024 exceeded forecasts at 738,000, up 4.09% from September’s sales of 709,000 and 6.34% from 2023’s sales of the same month. Despite housing market obstacles like rising mortgage rates, this data points to a robust desire for new houses. Due to economic changes and the continued attraction of new houses in the face of a limited inventory of older homes, home sales have been steadily recovering, as seen by the monthly rise.
- Richmond Manufacturing Index: After registering -21 in September, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October 2024 read -14 . This shows that although the rate of loss has moderated from the previous month, manufacturing activity in the Fifth District is still declining. Although a negative index value indicates a decline in activity, the most recent data indicates that the rate of deterioration is not as high as it was in previous months.
Wednesday (November 27, 2024):
- Prelim GDP q/q: November 27 saw the announcement of the second estimate of the U.S. GDP for Q3 2024, which indicated a growth rate of 2.8%. Consumer spending was the key driver, while commerce served as a drag due to rising imports. Additionally, the personal savings rate dropped to 4.8% due to government expenditures.
- Unemployment Claims: Initial U.S. unemployment claims for the week ending November 23, 2024, decreased to 213,000 from 219,000 the week before, suggesting a modest recovery in the job market.
- Core Durable Goods Orders m/m: Orders for core durable goods increased 0.5% month over month in October 2024, beating forecasts. This comes after a gain of 0.4% in September, indicating that industrial activity was doing well.
- Durable Goods Orders m/m: New orders for September decreased by 0.8% month-over-month (MoM), according to the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report. This comes after a 0.8% decline in August. With a 3.1% decline, transportation equipment was the primary cause of the decline. Nonetheless, new orders rose by 0.4% when transportation was taken out of the equation. Given the continued uncertainty in the industrial sector, this is the third decline in the previous four months.
- Prelim GDP Price Index q/q: In comparison to the 2.5% increase in the previous quarter, the Prelim GDP Price Index for Q3 2024, which is set to be released on November 27, is predicted to show an increase of about 1.8% quarter-over-quarter, suggesting a decrease in inflation. Price variations for products and services produced in the US economy are tracked by this index.
- Chicago PMI: An important economic indicator for the Chicago area’s manufacturing sector is scheduled to be revealed on November 27. Expansion is indicated by a value above 50, while contraction is indicated by a reading below 50. It influences economic projections and market expectations by offering information on output, new orders, employment, and inventory.
- Core PCE Price Index m/m: October 2024 saw a 0.30% month-over-month increase in the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, which was higher than the 0.20% increase the previous month. This is consistent with the long-term norm and carries on a trend that began in September 2024. The Federal Reserve continues to keep a close eye on the Core PCE Index, which excludes the costs of food and energy.
- Pending Home Sales m/m: The total Pending Home Sales for September 2024 increased by 7.37% month-over-month (MoM), or 4.55% year-over-year (YoY). All U.S. regions positively contributed to the increase in sales, according to the data, with the West leading the way with a noteworthy 9.78% MoM gain. Increases in other regions, such as the Northeast, Midwest, and South, ranged from 6.5% to 7.1% MoM. With the West area seeing the largest YoY gain at 16.15%, this increase in pending sales points to a sustained rebound in the housing market.
- Personal Income m/m: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the October 2024 Personal Income and Outlays statistics on November 27, 2024. This report will demonstrate the changes in personal outlays (consumer spending) and personal income (wages, government benefits, etc.) from the prior month. Insights regarding the general state of the economy, including disposable income and personal savings rates, will be included in the release. Both personal income and disposable personal income grew by 0.3% month over month in September 2024.
- Personal Spending m/m: The October 2024 Personal Spending (MoM) data, which was made public on November 27, indicated a little 0.3% rise over the previous month. Compared to September’s 0.5% increase, this number shows a modest uptick, indicating that consumer spending growth is still occurring, albeit more slowly.
Thursday (November 28, 2024):
- Bank Holiday.
Friday (November 29, 2024):
- no noteworthy news stories or economic reports are anticipated to have an effect on the U.S. markets.
Key inflation and economic data, especially the Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending statistics on November 27, will be the focus of market attention during the week of November 25–29, 2024. Future Fed policy choices will be greatly aided by these insights into consumer behavior and inflationary patterns. Furthermore, regional economic circumstances will be highlighted by the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales, and market mood will be further informed by Durable Goods Orders and the GDP Price Index on November 29. Markets are expected to be volatile due to the conflicting signals from central bank policies and inflation, with inflation data having a significant impact on short-term investor outlooks.
Corporate Earning
For the week of November 25-29, 2024, a few notable corporate earnings reports are set to be released:
- After the market closes on November 25, 2024, Zoom Video Communications is anticipated to report its earnings. Analysts predict a 1.31 EPS and a moderate 2.05% sales rise.
- On November 25, 2024, Bath & Body Works will report its earnings before the market opens. Revenue increase of 1.15% is anticipated, while earnings per share (EPS) will slightly decline by -2.08%.
- Additionally, Woodward and Agilent Technologies will report on November 25, 2024, with anticipated profit rises of 48.81% and 1.45%, respectively.
- Earnings from Fluence Energy and Semtech are also projected for November 26, 2024, with both firms predicted to see notable year-over-year growth, including an astounding 1,400% gain for Fluence Energy.
In conclusion, These studies offer insights into several economic sectors by showcasing a diverse range of businesses with varying levels of success.
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