Green Horizons Weekly Market Report

09/12/2024

By : Green Horizons

Green Horizons Weekly Report

09/12/2024 – 13/12/2024

Jordan Daily – Due to a mix of international events and the publication of economic data, the U.S. foreign markets will have a lot of activity this week. Key events, such as updates on inflation rates, job statistics, and central bank policy signals, were widely watched by investors last week.

Changes in commodity prices and geopolitical tensions also had an influence on the markets, which increased volatility. With a better understanding of market performance and economic stability, traders and analysts are adjusting their plans as the year draws to a close. This report explores the key trends and events influencing the weekly market moves in US Indices.

S&P 500 (SPX500)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 6023 / 6040 / 6068 – a critical level of support where the index remained stable during the previous weeks.
Resistance Level: 6101 / 6145 / 6182 – Breaking this mark might signal more upward momentum.
Outlook: “As mentioned in last week’s analysis, if the upward movement is completed, this index is expected to reach levels around 6100, which indeed was the highest point the price touched during last week’s trading sessions. Additionally, the correction for the continuation of the upward trend was evident. Should the prices complete the upward trajectory, they are likely to reach levels of 6160-6185. However, if the prices decide to initiate a direct downward trend, we may witness a slight extension upward to levels of 6130-6150 before the downtrend start.”
“Attention should be given to the key levels that distinguish between upward and downward movements. A clear break below the 6070 level, followed by sustained trading beneath it, would gradually lead prices towards 6040, 6020, and 6005. At each level, a clear break and stability below are required to move to the next target. Similarly, a clear break above 6128, with sustained trading above it, would extend the upward movement toward the levels mentioned earlier.”

Russell 2000 (RUSS2000)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 2332 / 2370 / 2394 – the support floors that are in place now.

Resistance Level: 2472 / 2518 / 2547 – The index may exhibit upward momentum if it breaks through this barrier.

Outlook: “As stated in our previous weekly report, if this index continued its upward movement, it was expected to reach the 2468 level, which we indeed observed as the price touched this level and immediately rebounded. Should the index halt its decline around the 2364 level and rebound from there, it is likely to resume its upward trajectory toward the 2550-2596 However, any clear break below this level, accompanied by sustained trading beneath it, would signal further declines toward the 2310-2275 levels. A decisive break below these levels would mark the beginning of a downward trend for this index.”

“Please remain attentive to the key levels that serve as decisive points between upward and downward movements. A clear break above last week’s high would directly lead to a continuation of the upward trend toward the previously mentioned levels. Additionally, attention must be given to the critical support zones, which could trigger the start of a downward trend. These zones include 2364-2410, with the strongest level being 2270, which is likely to drive prices sharply lower if breached, It is possible for the 2270 level to be tested before continuing the upward trend. However, this scenario is somewhat unlikely in this week’s trading sessions.”

Dow Jons (US30)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 44200 / 44570 – a solid support level currently.

Resistance Level: 45050 / 45296 – Crossing the threshold would validate the uptrend.

Outlook: “As we mentioned in our previous weekly report, the price reached the area around 45050, and indeed, it touched this level and quickly rebounded from it more than three times consecutively. This area remains a barrier to the continuation of the upward movement; however, it is now anticipated to be breached to resume the upward trend toward the 45350-45540 On the other hand, a clear break and sustained trading below the 44480 level would push prices toward 44200. If this level is broken, the index would enter a very strong support zone extending to 43700. However, should the attempt to break this area fail, the index is likely to recover and resume its upward trajectory.”

“The most critical key level is 45050, as any clear break above it and sustained trading above this level would allow the index to continue its upward movement toward the previously mentioned levels. On the other hand, breaking below 44480 and sustaining trading beneath it would gradually lead prices toward 44200, 43990, 43840, and 43735. All these levels are considered corrective zones in response to the sharp upward movement that occurred in this index.”

Nasdaq 100 (US100)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 21000 / 21230 / 21380 – a crucial support if declines occur.

Resistance Level: 21640 / 21780 – breaking this level could signal a more upward trend.

Outlook: “The overall outlook for this index remains positive, as we have observed a clear breakout above its previous high, forming a new peak at the 21620 level, which now acts as a new resistance zone. A slight correction is expected, extending toward the 21400 level, which currently serves as a very strong support level that is difficult to breach. Should this level be broken, additional declines are likely, targeting the 21270 level, with a further extension to 21100.”
“It is likely that the index will retest the 21000 level, as this is considered the key area determining whether the upward trend will continue or a new downward trend will begin. Conversely, a clear break above the 21600 level and sustained trading above it would allow the price to continue rising toward the 21865-21984 ”

Weekly News

Between December 9 and December 12, 2024, important financial and market events are predicted, which might have a big influence on trade activity thit week:

Monday (December 09, 2024):

Final Wholesale Inventories m/m: According to initial projections, the U.S. Final Wholesale Inventories for September 2024 decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. This suggests that inventory levels have somewhat decreased, indicating that firms are managing their inventories cautiously in the face of economic uncertainty. Various sectoral trends were reflected in the moderate increase in durable goods stocks and the slight decrease in nondurable goods inventories. Notable variations were seen in categories such as petroleum products and automobiles.

Tuesday (December 10, 2024):

NFIB Small Business Index: The following are the main conclusions drawn from the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which was published on December 10, 2024, and highlights persistent difficulties for small firms in the United States:
Overall Optimism: The measure indicated ongoing challenges in the small company climate, showing a minor increase over prior months but still falling short of the historical norm.

2. Sales forecasts: There has been a little rise in sales forecasts, with fewer companies reporting a drop, indicating cautious confidence over demand in the future.

3. Labor Challenges: With 35% of small firms reporting unfilled job positions, labor shortages continue to be a major problem. The level of labor quality concerns is at its greatest level in a number of months.

Inflationary Pressures: Although the rate has somewhat slowed, inflation is still having an effect on small firms, since many of them are still anticipating price hikes.
5. Profitability Issues: Despite changes in pricing tactics, businesses are having trouble keeping up with growing expenses, which are reducing profitability.

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to issue the Revised Nonfarm Productivity statistics for Q3 2024 on December 10, 2024. According to the preliminary data, nonfarm business productivity increased by 2.2% annually, with real production increasing by 3.5% and hours worked increasing by 1.2%. This indicates increases in the effectiveness of the way work hours are used to produce output. Hourly pay climbed by 4.2%, while unit labor expenses, a gauge of cost pressures, increased by 1.9%.
Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q: Released on October 12, 2024, the Revised Unit Labor Costs (ULC) for Q3 2024 show a 2.1% rise over the prior quarter. Compared to the 2.2% increase in Q2 2024, this number shows a slower rise. When evaluating inflationary pressures in the economy, the ULC—a measure of the average cost of labor per unit of output—is essential. According to the statistics, cost trends are still influenced by productivity and compensation changes, indicating a balanced trend. Businesses and politicians use unit labor costs as a key metric to evaluate competitiveness and wage pressures.

Wednesday (December 11, 2024):

10-y Bond Auction: The 10-year Treasury notes will be reopened during the December 11, 2024, U.S. 10-year bond auction. The offering amount will be disclosed beforehand, and the auction will proceed according to the standard issuing procedure. Investors bid on the bonds based on their predictions of future interest rates and economic conditions, making Treasury auctions highly monitored since they offer insights into market mood. The yield on Treasury securities, which in turn affects other interest rates across the economy, is influenced by the outcomes of such auctions. Given the state of the economy and the continuous debates over inflation and Federal Reserve policy, investors will probably use the demand for the 10-year notes as a proxy for market confidence.

Federal Budget Balance: In contrast to the projected deficit of $226.4 billion, the U.S. federal budget balance as of November 2024 shows a deficit of $257.0 billion. Compared to the $64.0 billion surplus that was announced the month before, this is a significant change. The difference between the U.S. government’s receipts and outlays for the period under review is known as the Federal Budget Balance. As can be seen below, a negative balance means that throughout October, the government spent more than it brought in. The USD’s performance and market sentiment may be affected by this shift.

Thursday (December 12, 2024):

Core PPI m/m: From 143.78 in October to 144.41 in November 2024, the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.43% month over month. From 140.03 in November 2023, the index has increased by 3.13% year over year. With the exception of fluctuating food and energy prices, this data is a crucial predictor of price fluctuations in the US economy and is often monitored as a sign of inflationary pressures. More information on this continuing trend will be available with the release on December 12, 2024.

PPI m/m: Following a flat reading in September, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) is predicted to show a 0.2% month-over-month gain in November 2024. This shift indicates that producer prices have somewhat recovered after a period of sluggish growth. The PPI is expected to increase by 2.3% annually, which would be a little acceleration from the 1.8% increase that was previously anticipated. It is also anticipated that the core PPI, which does not include volatile categories like food and energy, will increase by 0.3%, up from 0.2% the previous month.

Unemployment Claims: The December 12, 2024, jobless claims report shows an increase in new and ongoing claims, indicating that more people are applying for benefits as a result of layoffs or financial strains. Tracking regions of economic hardship is aided by claims data, including regional characteristics; Texas provides comprehensive county-by-county numbers. Understanding labor market developments and the effects of unemployment relief programs requires this knowledge. See the materials provided by the Texas Workforce Commission for a more thorough examination.

Friday (December 12, 2024):

Import Prices m/m: On December 13, 2024, the U.S. Import Price Index for November 2024 will be released. It is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month over month, which is in line with the growth observed in October. For the U.S. dollar, a higher-than-expected outcome might be seen as a warning of possible inflationary pressures. The report examines changes in the cost of imported goods and services. On the other hand, the dollar may suffer if the actual figure is lower than anticipated. The November data follows a -0.4% fall in September and a -0.1% predicted decline for October, indicating possible volatility in the expenses of international commerce. The Import Price Index has historically fluctuated.

Offers a crucial time frame for evaluating the state of the US economy, with important studies on productivity, labor markets, and inflation. A better picture of labor market trends and productivity growth will be provided by the Revised Nonfarm Productivity and Unemployment Claims statistics, while the expected PPI and Core PPI reports may shed light on inflationary pressures. Important economic events like the Federal Budget Balance and the 10-year Bond Auction will also affect market sentiment, which might have an effect on financial instruments and the overall state of the economy.

The December 13 announcement of import prices will be closely watched since any indications of growing costs might have an impact on market expectations and Federal Reserve policy, especially with regard to managing inflation. As the year draws to a close, the economic indicators of the week will probably give clues about the general trajectory of the American economy, impacting both short-term market fluctuations and longer-term economic projections.

In general, market players and investors should keep an eye on these announcements for any changes in the direction of the economy.

Corporate Earning

A number of business earnings releases that might affect the U.S. market are planned for the week of December 9–13, 2024:

Monday, December 9:

-Toll Brothers (TOL): Expected to report earnings of $4.34 per share, a 5.6% year-over- year (YoY) increase, with revenue forecast at $3.2 billion (+5.0% YoY).

-Other key reports: Oracle (ORCL), MongoDB (MDB), and Vail Resorts (MTN).

Tuesday, December 10:

-Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO): A $1.28 earnings per share report is anticipated.

-AutoZone (AZO): $33.56 per share is the estimated earnings.

– Other noteworthy reports include those from United Natural Foods (UNFI), G-III Apparel (GIII), and Designer Brands (DBI).

Wednesday, December 11:

– Adobe (ADBE): With a projected revenue of $5.5 billion (+9.8% YoY) and expected earnings of $4.67 per share (+9.4% YoY), Adobe’s dominant position in creative and digital tools is highlighted.,

– Additional reports: Photronics (PLAB) and Nordson (NDSN).

Thursday, December 12:

– Broadcom (AVGO): a strong performer, with analysts projecting sales of $14.1 billion (+51.3% YoY) and profits of $1.39 per share (+25.2% YoY).

These earnings reports from major semiconductor, consumer goods, and technology firms may have an impact on market mood, especially for tech stocks like Adobe and Broadcom.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Jordan Daily, Green Horizons, and any affiliated advertisers disclaim all liability for any decisions made based on this report. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

09/12/2024