Green Horizons Weekly Market Report

01/12/2024

By : Green Horizons

Jordan Daily – Because of the impact of geopolitical events, central banks policies, and economic indicators, the U.S. foreign exchange market has continued to play a crucial role in Indices trading. Traders and investors will keep a careful eye on important developments as we go into the week of December 2, 2024, to December 6, 2024, such as changes in market mood, job statistics, and the Federal Reserve’s position on interest rates.

In addition to highlighting the expected data releases and evaluating possible trading opportunities and hazards for the next week, this article attempts to offer a thorough review of the US Indices.

S&P 500 (SPX500)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 5840 / 5880 / 5960 – a crucial support level where the index has been steady in last week.

Resistance Level: 6040 / 6110 – breaking this level may indicate further upward momentum.
Outlook: “The outlook remains strongly positive. A downward correction may occur before the upward trend resumes. It is important to monitor key levels that will determine the market’s direction during this week’s trading. The expected correction zones are 5963-5920, while the most critical level, acting as a decisive point between further Uptrend or going to more Downtrend, is 5840. Any closure or sustained movement below this level could lead to a deeper corrective decline, If the upward movement continues, it is expected to reach the 6100-6150”

Russell 2000 (RUSS2000)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 2270 / 2348 – the current support floors.
Resistance Level: 2468 / 2560 – if the index surpasses this level, it may show upward momentum.
Outlook: “We observed a continued upward movement reaching the 2468 level, which is considered a critical area. If the price fails to break through this level, it is likely to push back downward. However, breaking and holding above it will allow the upward trend to continue toward the 2580-2620 Attention should also be given to the key areas of 2310/2250, as any break below and stability at these levels could lead to a deeper correction.”

Dow Jons (US30)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 44020 / 44320 – a solid support level currently.
Resistance Level: 45050 / 45290 – crossing this level would confirm continued upward momentum.
Outlook: “We observed relatively strong uptrend during last week’s trading. The trend remains firmly bullish, with prices holding above the 44800 level, providing further upward momentum. Key areas to watch include the 44430 level, as any stability below it could push prices into a deeper correction. The critical zone that separates an upward continuation from a start downtrend is 43850-44050. If prices maintain stability above these levels and the upward movement persists, they are likely to reach the 45350-45600 ”

Nasdaq 100 (US100)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 20400 / 20620 – a crucial support if declines occur.
Resistance Level: 21000 / 21220 – breaking this level could signal a more upward trend.
Outlook: “This index has recently garnered significant attention. Last week’s trading saw a correction to the 20600 level, which prompted prices to resume their upward movement. Key levels to monitor are 20960-21000, as holding above these levels will strengthen the bullish momentum. Conversely, stability below 20600 could lead to a deeper correction. If the upward trend continues, prices may reach 21100, and a clear break and stability above this level could drive prices toward 21380-21530.”

Weekly News

Key financial and market events are anticipated between December 2nd and December 6th, 2024, which could significantly impact the week’s trading activity:

Monday (December 02, 2024):

Final Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to decrease, as seen by the Final Manufacturing PMI for December 2, 2024, which came in at 47.9. This number is much lower than November’s 49.4 and was somewhat below the mid-month projection of 48.2. The drop indicates possible future slowdowns and is a reflection of ongoing difficulties brought on by weaker new orders and backlogs. As companies report growing input prices and pass these increases on to customers, inflationary pressures continue to be a worry. Global economic uncertainty was cited by respondents as a major determinant of business sentiment, with declines in employment and production adding to the sector’s general malaise.

ISM Manufacturing PMI: It is anticipated that the U.S. manufacturing sector will continue to decrease in December 2024, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI staying below 50. This is a reflection of persistent issues including supply chain interruptions, excessive inflation, and interest rates. Even though the industry is having difficulties, certain places could see modest improvements. A better indication of whether the slump is stabilizing or intensifying will be given by the final PMI.

ISM Manufacturing Prices: The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November 2024 came in at 54.8, which was in line with the prediction. This suggests inflationary pressure as input costs in the industrial sector continue to rise. The index did not change from the previous month, indicating a constant yet high level of pricing activity.

Construction Spending m/m: S. construction spending reached $2.15 trillion in September 2024, up 7.3% from the year before. While nonresidential building increased by 7.6%, residential construction increased by 6.9%. Key sectors like transportation, education, and public safety drove this growth, signaling strong infrastructure investment.

Tuesday (December 03, 2024):

JOLTS Job Openings: Job opportunities decreased from 9.9 million in September to 9.4 million in October 2024, according to JOLTS statistics. This suggests that the job market is weakening and that hiring practices are becoming more conservative. The number of hiring and separations was constant, while the number of job opportunities decreased. Based on variables like inflation and interest rates, this data may indicate that labor demand is decreasing.
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism: In October 2024, the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index improved for the fourth consecutive month, rising little to 46.9. Optimism for the economy (47.3) and personal finances (53.6) rose, but trust in federal policy fell to 39.7. At 55.9, investor optimism is still greater than that of non-investors (42.3). The indicator is still below 50, indicating general pessimism despite the recent change.

Wednesday (December 04, 2024):

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: The ADP Non-Farm Employment report for November 2024 exceeded forecasts of 110,000 jobs with a robust growth of 233,000. While manufacturing suffered a minor dip, the services sectors—such as commerce, transportation, and education/health—were the primary drivers of the increase. This strong employment growth suggests that the economy is still resilient and might affect monetary policy decisions made by the Fed in the future.

Final Services PMI: On December 4, 2024, the Final Services PMI increased to 55.0, indicating that the U.S. services industry is still expanding. Strong demand is evident from the rise in new orders. However, inflationary pressures remain as firms confront higher input prices, notably for labor and transportation, which are passed on to consumers. Higher orders put some pressure on capacity, but employment was steady. Although inflation and cost pressures pose challenges, the industry is nevertheless strong overall.

ISM Services PMI: With a score of 53.5, the ISM Services PMI for November 2024 indicated that the services sector in the United States was growing moderately. Although there has been a little decrease from the previous month, the industry is still growing. Positive contributions came from employment, new orders, and business activity, but inflation and labor shortages remain problems. Although external risks like global disruptions are a concern, the outlook is still stable.

Factory Orders m/m: On December 4, 2024, the U.S. Factory Orders report for October was published, indicating a 0.4% rise over the previous month. This indicates a rebound from the September decrease of 0.5%. The actual outcome indicates better-than-expected manufacturing activity, since analysts had predicted a lesser decline of 0.4%. This report, which is regarded as a crucial indication of the state of the economy, offers information on the total value of new purchase orders made with manufacturers, including orders for durable and non-durable items.

Thursday (December 05, 2024):

Challenger Job Cuts y/y: According to U.S. Challenger Job Cuts, there were 34,817 scheduled layoffs in December 2024, a 23.5% decrease from November. Technology, automobiles, and financial services were important industries. In spite of this, there was a sharp decline in hiring intentions—more than 80% less than in November. In light of economic considerations, this implies careful workforce tactics.

Unemployment Claims: The most recent report on Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance will be published by the U.S. Department of Labor on December 5, 2024. There were 213,000 new claims for the week ending November 23, 2024, which was a little drop from the 215,000 claims for the week prior. When compared to the same week in 2023, this number stayed constant. According to the statistics, there was a little decline of -0.93% from the previous week. With a general decreasing trend in recent weeks, the number of claims has stayed reasonably consistent over the previous few months, indicating generally stable employment market conditions.

Trade Balance: The U.S. trade balance deficit as of October 2024 was $99.1 billion, which was $9.6 billion less than the deficit of $108.7 billion in September 2024. October’s imports were $267.8 billion, down $15.2 billion from September, while exports came to $168.7 billion, down $5.6 billion from September. With notable variations in export and import values throughout the year, this maintains the pattern of varying trade deficits.

Friday (December 06, 2024):

Average Hourly Earning m/m: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish information on Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) for November 2024 on December 6, 2024. This important economic indicator tracks changes in wage growth by calculating the average hourly wages of private sector workers. According to the latest data, Average Hourly Earnings in October 2024 were $35.46, up 3.99% from the same period the previous year and 0.37% from the previous month.In order to evaluate the current patterns in wage inflation—which may indicate changes in consumer spending power or the possibility of future interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve—this report will be crucial.

Non-Farm Employment Change: Job growth for November 2024 will be included in the Non-Farm Employment Change report for December 6, 2024. The October 2024 report from the previous month showed that 250,000 new employments had been added, which was more than anticipated. Despite the possibility of a slowdown in some industries owing to rising interest rates, analysts anticipate that job growth will continue. The information will be crucial for comprehending the health of the labor market and how it affects inflation and Fed policy.

Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate for November 2024 will be included in the U.S. Unemployment Rate report, which is set to be released on December 6, 2024. As of October 2024, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.9%. This data will be constantly monitored by analysts for any shifts in the state of the labor market. While an increase might indicate difficulties brought on by rising interest rates or other economic pressures, a constant or dropping rate could indicate ongoing economic resilience. When evaluating the state of the labor market and its effects on the economy, these data will be essential.

Prelim UOM Consumer Sentiment: Consumer confidence for November 2024 will be revealed in the preliminary UOM Consumer Sentiment report, which is set to be released on December 6, 2024. Despite persistent worries about inflation, the prior study indicated a minor uptick in consumer mood, with consumers expressing moderate confidence. This index gauges how consumers feel about their own finances, the state of the economy, and their future aspirations. Strong consumer confidence is usually indicated by a higher sentiment level, and this can stimulate economic growth and expenditure. However, a drop might be a sign of worries about growing expenses or unstable economic conditions.

Prelim UOM Inflation Expectations: On December 6, 2024, the Prelim UOM Inflation Expectations report will be released, revealing the short- and long-term inflation expectations of U.S. consumers. Long-term expectations were stable at 2.4% in October 2024, while short-term expectations were 3.6%. Consumer spending and saving habits are influenced by these numbers, and changes in expectations can provide information about future inflation patterns and the health of the economy.

Consumer Credit m/m: The change in the total amount of outstanding credit utilized by American customers in October 2024 will be displayed in the Consumer Credit report, which is scheduled to be released on December 6, 2024. This gives information about consumer borrowing patterns and covers credit card debt, vehicle loans, and school loans. Consumer credit grew by $12.3 billion in the September 2024 report, indicating consistent borrowing. Higher borrowing may indicate greater consumer confidence or financial distress brought on by inflation and increasing interest rates, so analysts will be watching for any notable changes.

A combination of economic data and persistent inflationary pressures is projected to cause continuous instability in the U.S. foreign exchange market during the week of December 2–6, 2024. The labor market is still strong, as seen by the Non-Farm Employment figures, but the Final Manufacturing PMI and ISM surveys point to ongoing difficulties in the manufacturing sector.

Market outlooks will be significantly shaped by consumer confidence and inflation expectations, particularly as the Federal Reserve continues to evaluate the state of the economy. Important economic data, such the Consumer Credit and Unemployment Rate, will shed further light on the state of the American economy and how it affects exchange rates, especially the US dollar. Participants in the market will need to keep a careful eye on these developments for indications of possible volatility and mood swings.

Corporate Earning

For the week of December 2-6, 2024, several major companies are scheduled to report their earnings. Here are some key highlights:

Monday, December 2:

Zscaler (expected EPS: $0.63, revenue: $605.43M).

Tuesday, December 3:

BOX (EPS: $0.42, revenue: $275.44M).

Salesforce (CRM) (EPS: $2.44, revenue: $9.35B).

Donaldson (EPS: $0.82, revenue: $889.8M).

OKTA (EPS: $0.58, revenue: $649.74M).

Wednesday, December 4:

American Eagle Outfitters (EPS: $0.47, revenue: $1.31B).

AeroVironment (EPS: $0.69, revenue: $177.06M).

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (EPS: $0.45, revenue: $845.1M).

Campbell Soup (EPS: $0.88, revenue: $2.8B).

Dollar Tree (DLTR) (EPS: $1.07, revenue: $7.45B).

Thursday, December 5:

Cooper Companies (EPS: $1.00, revenue: $1.03B).

Dollar General (EPS: $0.95, revenue: $10.14B).

DocuSign (EPS: $0.87, revenue: $745.26M).

National Beverage (EPS: $0.49, revenue: $309.98M).

Among the noteworthy firms to keep an eye on for the December 2–6, 2024, corporate earnings announcements are Zscaler (ZS), which performed well. They exceeded projections by $0.23 with their reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88. Additionally, revenue was higher than anticipated, coming in at $553.2 million as opposed to $536.1 million. The business anticipates sales of around $567.6 million and an EPS of $0.69 in the upcoming quarter.

If you want to follow market trends or the success of certain stocks, pay attention to these earnings announcements as they will probably have a big impact on their stock performance.

Feel Free to visit our site www.ghva.tech , or contact us for more.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Jordan Daily, Green Horizons, and any affiliated advertisers disclaim all liability for any decisions made based on this report. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

01/12/2024