Green Horizons Weekly Market Report

29/12/2024

By : Green Horizons

Green Horizons Weekly Report

30/12/2024 – 03/01/2025

Jordan Daily – For the U.S. markets, the last week of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 are critical periods as investors consider a year influenced by shifting economic policies, inflationary pressures, and world events. Due to the New Year’s Day holiday on Wednesday, January 1, the trade week from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, will be reduced.

Participants will keep a careful eye on tax-loss harvesting operations, end-of-year portfolio adjustments, and the possibility that the classic “January effect” would affect equities prices as markets move into the new year. This week might determine the direction of the market going into the first quarter of 2025 because there aren’t many trading days left and important economic data are due to be released.

As we examine the week’s major indexes, business developments, and market mood, stay tuned.

S&P 500 (SPX500)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 5880 / 5825 / 5748 – a critical level of support where the index remained stable during the previous weeks.
Resistance Level: 6020 / 6075 / 6116 – Breaking this mark might signal more upward momentum.
Outlook: “We observed a slight decline in this index to levels around 5915, which are considered relatively strong areas. If these levels can halt the index’s downward movement, we may witness a gradual rise back to levels around 6060. Should it surpass the previous peak, it could reach levels around 6117. However, any clear break below the 5895 level and stability beneath it would support further declines, potentially reaching levels around 5790, while pausing at some of the support levels mentioned above.”

Russell 2000 (RUSS2000)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 2170 / 2195 / 2225 / – the support floors that are in place now.

Resistance Level: 2290 / 2320 / 2360 – The index may exhibit upward momentum if it breaks through this barrier.

Outlook: “We have witnessed significant declines in this index over the recent short period, leading it to reach levels around 2190. However, it has shown some recovery, climbing back to the 2286 level. These areas are relatively strong, which may enable the index to recover and rise further. Caution is advised, though, in key zones that will determine the direction for the coming period.

If the 2190 level successfully halts the index’s decline, it would be a positive indicator for an optimistic outlook. The expected levels to be reached in the event of an upward movement are 2338-2367. However, any break below the 2190 level would support further declines, potentially reaching levels around 2130-2100. A break below this level and stability beneath it would further support a move toward the 2056 level.”

Dow Jons (US30)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 41650 / 42010 / 42490 – a solid support level currently.

Resistance Level: 43400 / 43725 / 44130 – Crossing the threshold would validate the uptrend.

Outlook: “The Dow Jones index experienced a decline in the recent short period, reaching levels close to 42,000, which are considered very strong support areas capable of halting the drop and supporting a rebound. Signs of recovery have been observed, leading to a rise back to the 43,300 level. However, caution is warranted to determine the index’s next direction.

Currently, attention should be focused on the 42,470 level. A renewed break below this level would support further declines, potentially reaching the 42,000 level. Additionally, breaking below and stabilizing beneath this level could support a further drop toward the pivotal 41,650 level, which is considered the dividing point between upward and downward trends, at least in the medium term.

A positive outlook remains intact for now. Any break above the 43,330 level and stabilization above it would support further upward movement, gradually reaching levels of 43,620 and then 43,980. Should the index succeed in breaking through these areas, a gradual return to the peak is likely, with updates to follow as necessary.”

Nasdaq 100 (US100)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 20600 / 20780 / 21130– a crucial support if declines occur.

Resistance Level: 21860 / 22075 / 22200 – breaking this level could signal a more upward trend.

Outlook: “So far, we can say that the decline observed in the index appears to be a corrective one, as it halted at the strongest support level of 20,710 before rebounding and climbing back to 21,840. Caution is strongly advised in the near term to determine the direction this index will take.

Stabilization above the 21,110 level is a positive indicator. However, any break below this level and stability beneath it would support further declines, potentially reaching 20,060 in the short term. If the upward trend continues, the index is expected to gradually reach 22,280, pausing at some resistance levels along the way.

Special caution is advised regarding the previous peak area, as it is typically one of the most challenging resistance barriers for the index to overcome.”

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 2578 / 2605 / 2620

Resistance Level: 2640 / 2657 / 2674

Outlook: “Gold remains one of the most important metals that consistently attracts the attention of investors and traders. Overall, gold is currently positioned in strong and critical areas, making it challenging to determine its next major move. However, by focusing on key levels and closely monitoring price action, the upcoming direction can be anticipated.

At present, gold is trading within a sideways range between 2608 and 2638. To simplify the outlook, if it continues to trade within this range, it can be considered a favorable area for short-term speculation, with selling opportunities around 2640 and buying opportunities at 2605 and 2580 levels.

However, if the 2640 level then 2650 breached and gold stabilizes above it, a positive outlook can be adopted, indicating a renewed upward trend. Conversely, breaking below the 2605 level and stabilizing beneath it would support further declines, potentially reaching 2580. This level is somewhat pivotal, as a break below it would serve as a relatively strong negative indicator for gold.”

Weekly News

There is not much impactful news this week due to the holiday associated with the start of the new year. However, we will highlight the upcoming news for this week:

Monday (December 30, 2024):

Chicago PMI: The manufacturing sector continues to decrease, as seen by the Chicago PMI for December 2024, which was published on December 30 and came in at 42.8. Although this is better than the 40.2 from November, it was still below the anticipated 44.9, indicating further difficulties.

Pending Home Sales: the Pending Home Sales Index for November 2024 indicated a little recovery in the housing market, up 0.7% over the previous month. This increase comes after a 2.0% increase in October, indicating a slow but steady rebound in pending house sales. As a leading predictor of housing market changes, the index tracks contract activity for existing single-family houses, condominiums, and cooperatives. Notwithstanding the recent improvements, the market still faces obstacles including rising mortgage rates and a shortage of available homes. After almost two years of slowed house sales, the National Association of Realtors reports that buyers are returning to the market as a result of ongoing job creation and an increase in the number of available homes.

Tuesday (December 31, 2024):

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y: the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index for October 2024 showed a 4.6% year-over-year gain, showing that home prices are continuing to grow in major U.S. metropolitan areas. Compared to the 5.2% rise recorded in September 2024, this represents a little slowdown. The index, which is a crucial gauge of the state of the housing market, shows changes in the selling prices of single-family houses across 20 metropolitan regions. The good rise, in spite of the reduction, points to possible resilience and continued demand in the housing market.

HPI m/m: the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index for September 2024 indicated a mild cooling of the national housing market, down 0.10% from the previous month. Compared to the 0.30% monthly drop seen in August 2024, this is a slowdown. As a crucial gauge of housing market changes, the index represents the shift in single-family house sales prices throughout the nine U.S. Census divisions. The index is still over the 300-point threshold, indicating that housing values are still high relative to historical levels, even with the recent monthly drops.

Wednesday (January 01, 2025):

Holiday

Thursday (January 02, 2025):

Unemployment Claims: anticipated to display 220,000 preliminary claims. With a moderate number of persons applying for unemployment insurance, this statistic would suggest a steady job market. A result of about 220,000 usually indicates that the labor market is still doing rather well and that job losses are not increasing dramatically. However, because seasonal variables like holiday-related layoffs may temporarily affect the data, it will be crucial to keep an eye out for patterns in future reports.

Final Manufacturing PMI: With the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recording 48.4% in November 2024—a little gain over October’s 46.5%—the U.S. manufacturing sector continued to decline. The fact that this is the ninth straight month that the economy has shrunk suggests that the industrial sector is still facing difficulties. One important measure of industrial activity is the PMI; numbers below 50% indicate recession.

Construction Spending m/m: Construction activity increased by 0.4%, above forecasts, according to the last Construction Spending report. A 0.3% rise is anticipated in the January 2025 report, reflecting continued expansion in both public and private sector building due to demand for both residential and non-residential projects.

Friday (January 03, 2025):

ISM Manufacturing PMI: is anticipated to demonstrate whether the manufacturing sector in the United States is growing or shrinking. With a PMI of 48.4% in November, a contraction was indicated, albeit a slower one than in prior months. Growth is indicated by a PMI number over 50, whilst contraction is suggested by a value below 50. The research will shed light on possible economic trends for the upcoming year as well as the state of the manufacturing industry.

ISM Manufacturing Prices: was 50.3, down from 54.8 in October. This indicator calculates how much manufacturers’ input costs have changed. Price increases are indicated by a value above 50, while price declines are indicated by a score below 50. In comparison to the previous month, the November data shows a reduction in price rises. More information about inflationary pressures in the industrial sector will be available with this future data.

Wards Total Vehicle Sales: It will include all automobile sales in December 2024. The total sales numbers for the last month of the year, as well as any trends in the automobile sector, are anticipated to be disclosed in the report. It usually contains information on the industry’s performance in relation to customer demand and inventory levels, such as total units sold and the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

The U.S. market will be keenly monitoring important reports that will set the tone for early 2025 as we approach the end of 2024 and the start of the new year. Market players will learn more about the state of the economy as manufacturing, construction expenditure, and car sales are anticipated to provide updates. Seasonal influences may cause some volatility, but how well these signs match investor expectations will determine the market’s overall direction. For the first quarter of the year, traders and investors should remain vigilant about any changes in data that may affect mood and influence market developments.

Corporate Earning

Due to the Christmas season, the U.S. market is anticipated to see few company earnings releases during the week of December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025. Notably, Tesla is expected to disclose its quarterly car delivery figures, which would offer information on the business’s success and possible market patterns. Furthermore, Lifecore Biomedical is expected to release its financial results, which might provide investors with important details about the biotechnology industry. In terms of business earnings reports, the week is anticipated to be somewhat quiet overall.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Jordan Daily, Green Horizons, and any affiliated advertisers disclaim all liability for any decisions made based on this report. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

29/12/2024