Green Horizons Weekly Market Report

06/01/2025

By : Green Horizons

Green Horizons Weekly Report

06/01/2025 – 10/01/2025

Jordan Daily – The US markets will have to negotiate a terrain influenced by the continuous consequences of company earnings reports, global macroeconomic events, and economic policy choices as we enter the first full trading week of 2025. Along with important reports from important industries like technology, finance, and energy, investors will be concentrating on the most recent labor market statistics, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve’s position this week.

The beginning of the year usually sets the tone for the months that follow, and this week may offer important clues on investor confidence and market mood given the anticipated increase in volatility. Keep checking back as we explore the main forces behind market performance and trends, emphasizing the events and patterns influencing the week’s economic story.

S&P 500 (SPX500)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 5725 / 5800 / 5890 – a critical level of support where the index remained stable during the previous weeks.
Resistance Level: 5970 / 6050 / 6100 – Breaking this mark might signal more upward momentum.
Outlook: “This index has experienced some fluctuations in recent weeks; however, during its decline, it halted at the critical support level of 5813. Currently, we can maintain a positive outlook for this index, anticipating its potential return to the peak once again. The key levels to monitor for predicting the upcoming movement are maintaining stability above the 5973 level, with closures above it signaling a positive indicator for further upward momentum. Conversely, any break below the 5885-5800 level and stability beneath it would indicate a negative signal for further declines.”

Russell 2000 (RUSS2000)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 2188 / 2215 / 2240 – the support floors that are in place now.

Resistance Level: 2285 / 2315 / 2345 / 2372 – The index may exhibit upward momentum if it breaks through this barrier.

Outlook: “We witnessed a slight decline in this index during last week’s trading sessions; however, it quickly recovered, closing at the 2267 level, which is considered a positive closure for the index. Stability above the 2230 level supports a positive outlook and the continuation of the upward trend, with the potential to revisit the peak.

The critical area is around 2285, as breaking and maintaining levels above it will strengthen the index’s momentum to continue rising toward the 2340-2370 range. Caution is advised if the 2200 level is breached and trading occurs below it, as this would signal a negative outlook, supporting further declines. Could reach to 2120.”

Dow Jons (US30)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 41660 / 41940 / 42200 – a solid support level currently.

Resistance Level: 42950 / 43350 / 43700 – Crossing the threshold would validate the uptrend.

Outlook: “The Dow Jones index attempted to decline during last week’s trading sessions but managed to recover half of the losses incurred. Nevertheless, extreme caution is advised during this period until a clearly defined trend emerges. In simple terms, maintaining stability above the 42,040 level and continuing to trade above it supports further expected upward momentum, potentially reaching the 43,550 level. However, caution is warranted regarding the breach of the 42,020 level. Breaking and closing below this level would support a decline toward the critical decision area at 41,650.”

Nasdaq 100 (US100)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 20335 / 20715 / 21030– a crucial support if declines occur.

Resistance Level: 21500 / 21605 / 21865 – breaking this level could signal a more upward trend.

Outlook: “We also witnessed some bearish momentum for this index. In simple terms, the movement can be summarized by monitoring the index’s key levels and anticipating its next direction. Stability above the 20,775 level supports a positive outlook and upward movement. A break above 21,355 would provide a stronger signal for a rise toward the 21,600 and 21,800 levels. However, caution is advised in the event of a breach of the 20,775 level and stability below it, as this would indicate a downward trend toward the 20,600 level. A further break below that level could lead the index to the 20,480 area.”

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Technical Analysis:

Support Level: 2580 / 2605 / 2625 / 2634

Resistance Level: 2666 / 2675 / 2693

Outlook: “Gold experienced consecutive gains during last week’s trading sessions but halted its upward momentum upon reaching the 2665 level, which is considered a critical area. The metal remains confined within a narrow range, requiring a breakout either upward or downward to establish a clear trend for the coming period.

For now, short-term speculative trading is recommended, buying from support levels and selling at resistance levels with short-term targets, until a clear direction emerges. However, as long as gold remains stable above the 2620–2605 zone, a positive outlook can be maintained, supporting further upward movement.

Extreme caution is advised if the final support at 2585 is breached and stability is stay below it, as this could trigger a sharp decline toward the 2530–2480 levels. For short-term trades, focus on small targets until a clear trend is identified. On the other hand, any breakout above the 2774 level would signal a strong bullish outlook for gold.”

Weekly News

Financial markets will have to handle a variety of company announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical issues this week, all of which will probably affect investor sentiment and market patterns. The publication of labor market surveys, inflation data, and central bank policy updates are among the major features. Investors will also be watching for early indications of how businesses are doing in the face of changing economic conditions as corporate earnings season approaches.

While evaluating possible dangers and possibilities, markets will try to build on current trends as we go into the second week of the new year. Anticipate more volatility and significant swings in commodities and stocks as traders respond to new information and world events that are reshaping the economy. A thorough examination of this week’s market highlights and major factors will be provided soon.

Monday (January 06, 2025):

Final Services PMI: With a value most likely between 54 and 58, the Final Services PMI for January 6, 2025, is anticipated to demonstrate ongoing growth in the US services sector. This would suggest modest growth, backed by robust demand in important sectors such as healthcare and finance. Despite possible obstacles like inflation and monetary tightening, a number above 50 would indicate that the economy is resilient.

Factory Orders m/m: The monthly variation in new manufacturing orders in the United States will be shown. A little rise is anticipated, indicating a sustained need for produced goods. While a fall could imply weakening demand, a positive result would reflect strength in the industrial sector.

Tuesday (January 07, 2025):

Trade Balance: will offer information on the disparity between imports and exports from the United States. Because the United States has traditionally imported more goods than it has exported, a negative balance, or trade deficit, is anticipated. The report will provide light on how strong international commerce is; a higher imbalance might indicate either a decline in demand for American exports or a rise in imports.

ISM Services PMI: will shed light on how well the US services industry is performing. Expansion is indicated by a value above 50, while contraction is indicated by a reading below 50. A stable or slightly positive rating is anticipated, indicating that services like banking, healthcare, and business services will continue to develop and support the rise of the economy as a whole.

JOLTS Job Openings: will show how many jobs are available in the US economy. Strong labor demand is indicated by a rise in job opportunities, whereas a decrease might point to a slowdown in hiring. Experts anticipate that the statistics will continue to demonstrate strong labor demand, indicating a competitive employment market.

Wednesday (January 08, 2025):

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: will offer information on the quantity of new employment created in the private sector in the United States over the course of the preceding month. While a lesser score would point to a slowdown in hiring, a positive number would signal healthy employment growth. Due to a tight labor market and ongoing economic expansion, modest employment gains are anticipated.

Unemployment Claims: will display the quantity of new applicants for unemployment insurance in the United States. A robust labor market is indicated by a decline in claims, but an increase may be a sign of increasing job losses. A steady or modest drop in claims is anticipated, pointing to continued labor market growth.

10-y Bond Auction: will provide light on the need for loans from the US government. While low demand may be a symptom of worries about the state of the economy or increasing interest rates, strong demand shows investor confidence. Investors are keeping a tight eye out for any changes in yield expectations, and the auction results should show steady demand.

FOMC Meeting Minutes: will offer thorough analysis of the topics covered by the US Federal Reserve at its most recent meeting. The Fed’s position on monetary policy, inflation expectations, and economic growth will be made clear in these minutes. Any indications of upcoming interest rate adjustments or changes in the Fed’s strategy for controlling inflation and promoting economic stability will be watched by the markets.

Consumer Credit m/m: will display the shift in the overall amount of credit given to customers, including loans and credit card debt. While a decline could signal less borrowing, an increase would reflect more consumer spending and confidence. Consumer credit is predicted to expand somewhat, suggesting continued consumer confidence and activity.

Thursday (January 09, 2025):

Challenger Job Cuts y/y: will draw attention to the quantity of layoffs reported by US businesses in comparison to the same time previous year. A rise implies a possible deterioration in the job market, whereas a fall signifies stability or progress. A steady or modest decrease in job losses is anticipated, indicating a strong labor market.

Final Wholesale Inventories m/m: demonstrate how the value of wholesale inventories in the US has changed. A drop in inventory signifies lower stock levels or higher demand, whereas an increase in stockpiles may imply slower sales or more supply. Moderate inventory increase is anticipated, indicating that supply and demand in the wholesale industry remain balanced.
30-y Bond Auction: explain why there is a need for long-term US government debt. While weak demand may reflect worries about inflation or increasing interest rates, strong demand shows confidence in the durability of the US economy. Demand is expected to remain steady, and market players are keeping a careful eye on yields in case the long-term economic picture changes.

Friday (January 10, 2025):

Average Hourly Earnings m/m: display the change in American workers’ earnings during the past month. While a drop may imply poorer wage growth, a rise shows growing earnings, which might be an indication of higher consumer spending and inflationary pressures. Moderate wage increase is anticipated, indicating stable labor market conditions.

Non-Farm Employment Change: show how many jobs were created or lost in the US economy, excluding the agriculture sector. While a negative rating might indicate a slowdown, a good reading indicates robust employment growth and a healthy labor market. Continued employment growth is anticipated, pointing to economic growth and a strong labor market.

Unemployment Rate: display the proportion of the US labor force that is looking for employment but is not yet employed. While an increase points to possible weakness, a reduction implies that the job market is improving. A constant or somewhat lower unemployment rate is anticipated, indicating continued resilience in the American labor market.

Important economic data that will shed light on the state of the American economy is expected to be released during the week of January 6–10, 2025. The labor market and general economic activity will be clarified by important statistics such the Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and ISM Services PMI. While any unexpectedly poor performance should raise worries about possible slowdowns, a consistent or positive performance in these measures would signal ongoing expansion and resilience. Analysts and investors will keep a careful eye on these announcements in order to evaluate the prospects for 2025.

Corporate Earning

A number of business earnings releases that might affect the U.S. market are anticipated during the week of January 6–10, 2025. Important businesses in industries including consumer goods, technology, and finance will probably release their profits, and the mood of the market may be impacted by their findings. Investor confidence may be bolstered by positive earnings surprises, particularly from big businesses like Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla. However, market volatility may result from these businesses’ poor profits or reduced outlook, especially in the tech-heavy NASDAQ index.

Furthermore, financial firms such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs may provide information on the state of the banking industry and investor attitude toward economic expansion through their earnings releases. In order to assess the prospects for the economy and stock market performance in the first quarter of 2025, analysts will be attentively observing these reports.

Apple Inc. (AAPL):

Anticipated Impact: Given that Apple is among the biggest firms in terms of market capitalization, the company’s earnings report is expected to have a big impact on the market as a whole, especially in the tech industry. While poor earnings might dampen market sentiment, particularly in growth sectors, strong results from Apple should improve investor optimism, particularly in the technology sector.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT):

Anticipated Impact: Microsoft’s financial results will shed light on the state of the IT sector as a whole, with a focus on software and cloud computing. While poor results might raise concerns about the sector’s slowing growth, strong profits could further help the tech surge.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA):

Anticipated Impact: The electric vehicle (EV) market will be greatly impacted by Tesla’s results, which may also offer insight into the direction of the EV sector going forward. While poor earnings might cause short-term volatility in Tesla’s shares and the larger EV industry, strong results would support the EV market.

JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM):

Anticipated Impact: As one of the biggest banks in the United States, JP Morgan’s results will provide a window into the financial industry. Healthy consumer and commercial loan activity would be indicated by strong profitability, but a downturn in the economy or rising interest rates might be the cause of poorer results.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS):

Anticipated Impact: Goldman Sachs’ financial results will offer a crucial glimpse into trading and investment banking operations. A miss might indicate problems with investment banking, mergers and acquisitions, or trading volumes, whereas a beat would indicate a great performance in the financial markets.

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG):

Anticipated Impact: Given its position as a top consumer products firm, P&G’s financial results should provide information on consumer purchasing patterns. While poor results can suggest a change in consumer behavior, perhaps as a result of the economy, strong profits might suggest that consumer spending is resilient, especially for necessities.

Coca-Cola Co. (KO):

Anticipated Impact: Coca-Cola’s financial results will shed light on the consumer beverage industry. While weak earnings might indicate challenges brought on by inflation or changing customer preferences, strong results would encourage consumer discretionary spending patterns.

PepsiCo Inc. (PEP):

Anticipated Impact: Like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo’s earnings report will provide light on customer preference, particularly in the food and beverage industry. While lower-than-expected results might suggest difficulties in the industry, a high performance could imply continued consumer strength.

The mood of the US stock market may be greatly impacted by these earnings releases, particularly in the consumer, banking, and technology industries. While weaker-than-expected results might bring volatility or adverse sentiment, positive earnings announcements could reinforce a bullish market perspective.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Jordan Daily, Green Horizons, and any affiliated advertisers disclaim all liability for any decisions made based on this report. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

06/01/2025