By : Nedal Zubeidi
Jordan Daily – Syria is on the verge of a new wave of violence as clashes between opposition forces and the regime escalate, driven by multiple factors, according to political analyst Dr. Monther Howarat.
Key among these factors is the intensified pressure from Russian airstrikes on opposition-held areas such as Idlib, which has triggered retaliatory actions by rebel factions.
Dr. Howarat told Jordan Daily that Turkey and the opposition are also seizing this moment to weaken Iran’s presence, particularly in Aleppo and northern Syria, areas where Iranian influence has grown in recent years.
The situation follows a series of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, which have been engaged in Israeli-Iranian military exchanges within Syria for nearly a year.
According to Dr. Howarat, both U.S. and Israeli efforts to cut off Iranian military support in Syria have opened the door for Turkey and the opposition to fill the potential power vacuum. This dynamic could significantly impact the regime’s standing in areas like Aleppo, where opposition forces have reportedly made significant advances, expanding towards Hama.
Dr. Howarat highlights that this may serve as a message from Turkey to the Assad regime, signaling its ability to shift the balance of power. However, the rapid collapse of regime forces in some areas, possibly due to internal weaknesses or the opposition’s growing military capabilities, has left the future uncertain.
The analyst warns that the regime’s inability to counter opposition forces may lead to further advances, raising questions about the possibility of an eventual march on Damascus. However, Dr. Howarat remains cautious, noting that while many question whether the Assad regime’s role has come to an end, international actors have yet to agree on a viable alternative.
He concludes that the situation in Syria remains fluid, with many possible outcomes still on the table. “The scenario of targeting Iranian influence is apparent, but it could also lead to the regime’s fall- or even acceptance of the current military divisions on the ground,” Dr. Howarat said. “No one can definitively predict where Syria will end up, but the situation must be closely monitored to understand its trajectory.”