By: Prof. Khalid Wasif Al-Wazani
Jordan Daily – Three major disruptions, demographic, commercial, and technological, are shaping today’s global economy. Their structural effects are becoming increasingly visible across both the parts of the world North and South countries.
1. The Demographic Disruptor
The world is facing a deep demographic imbalance. In the industrialized North, particularly across Europe, aging populations are becoming a clear economic burden. The rising average age has pushed large segments of the population outside the productive sphere and into the realm of social-security dependency. This means a shrinking labor force, coupled with rising costs of pensions, healthcare, and welfare services.
In contrast, the countries of the South, especially in the Arab world and Africa, have overwhelmingly youthful populations, with over 50% of citizens under 30. Most of these societies are now entering what economists call the “demographic dividend” phase, where the age group between 16 and 64 becomes dominant. This provides an enormous opportunity: a ready and willing labor force capable of driving production and innovation. The real disruptor lies in the persistence of structural unemployment among youth across much of the Arab and African regions, producing a generation that oscillates between joblessness, underemployment, and disillusionment.
Generation Z represents a vast energy source: it can either be harnessed for productive growth or diverted toward instability and external agendas. The result is a dual-paced global economy — a wealthy but fatigued North with declining productivity, and a young South in search of hope.
2. The Return of Protectionism
After decades of trade liberalization under globalization since the 1980s, the world is witnessing a return to protectionist policies. Many countries — including major economies — are re-imposing tariffs and adopting non-tariff barriers such as export bans or export quotas on raw materials. The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China exemplify this disturbing trend, while Europe has introduced new environmental regulations that often mask protectionist intent.
This reversal takes us back to the pre-World War II era, when nations sought to protect domestic industries at the expense of global efficiency. Such a return to trade distortions disrupts supply chains, threatens global production efficiency, and hints at the rise of a new world trade order – one defined by fragmented exchange systems, currency realignments, and shifting patterns of financial settlements.The prudent nations are those already developing early-warning systems and strategic positioning to navigate this transformation.
3. Artificial Intelligence: The Structural Technological Disruptor
Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents not just a technological breakthrough, but a structural disruptor in the global economy. While AI enhances productivity and reduces costs, it simultaneously threatens millions of traditional jobs.
The issue lies not in the technology itself, but in the readiness of public policies to absorb its impacts. While advanced economies are integrating AI to strengthen competitiveness, much of the Global South still approaches it as a consumer rather than a producer or innovator. Policymakers in developing regions — particularly in the Arab world — must act wisely to transform AI from a threat to an opportunity, through education reform, skill development, reskilling programs, and investment in innovation and entrepreneurship.
In conclusion, the global economy is undergoing a structural upheaval marked by three profound shifts: from free trade to protectionism, from demographic balance to generational gaps, and from human-based production to machine-driven intelligence. The future will belong not necessarily to the strongest economies, but to those most capable of adaptation and understanding the dynamics of these disruptors.
Khalid Al Wazani is Professor of Economics & Public policy at Mohammed Bin Rashid School of Government (MBRSG), he holds over 33 years of active participation in academic, public service, government, and private sector positions. He can be reach at khwazani@gmail.com .
