Threats to Jordanian national security
By : Mohammad Al-Momani
Jordan Daily – There is a debate regarding the primary threat to Jordan’s national security, with some arguing that it lies not in terrorism or Israel, but rather in Iran and its militias on the northern border, as well as the economic suffering of Jordanians, particularly the high youth unemployment rate. While these concerns are undoubtedly significant, I believe that the threat of terrorism and extremism should not be overlooked, and it would be dangerous to underestimate this danger.
The presence of Iranian militias near Jordan’s borders, engaged in smuggling drugs and weapons, poses a direct and immediate threat to Jordan’s national security. However, Jordan’s strong armed forces, its political and diplomatic influence, and its international standing, with the stability of the country being an international and regional interest, act as a deterrent against such threats. Jordan is widely regarded as an icon of stability in the Middle East, and any instability within the country could have broader implications for the region.
Additionally, the economic challenges facing Jordan, including high unemployment rates among the youth, are indeed a real danger to stability. Such hardships could potentially lead to social and political instability if left unaddressed. The high unemployment rate among the youth, reaching fifty percent, is particularly alarming.
While acknowledging the significance of these challenges, it is crucial to also recognize the persistent threat of terrorism and extremism in the Middle East. The possibility of these factors affecting stability in Jordan should not be disregarded. It is of utmost importance to continue the security and ideological battle against terrorism and extremism, aiming to eradicate these issues at their roots. Waiting for the emergence of a new generation of terrorists after the likes of Bin Laden, Al-Zarqawi, and Al-Baghdadi would be a grave mistake, as it is only a matter of time before post-ISIS terrorism takes shape in a potentially bloodier and more complex form. Therefore, the fight against terrorism must continue unabated.
However, the most significant threat to Jordan’s security and stability is argued to be the Israeli right’s persistent efforts to undermine the two-state solution. This poses an imminent danger to Jordan’s national security and directly impacts its supreme strategic interests. If a Palestinian state fails to materialize, Jordan could be forced into becoming an alternative homeland for Palestinians. This would not only threaten Jordan’s national identity but also transform it into a different state with distinct agendas. The Jordanian people would be compelled to fight fiercely to preserve their state, identity, and interests. These are not hypothetical scenarios, but rather real consequences that could arise if a Palestinian state is not achieved and if Palestinians are denied their right to self-determination, including the potential granting of citizenship to refugees in neighboring countries within the future Palestinian state.
While we acknowledge the dangers posed by Iran, economic suffering, and terrorism to Jordan’s security and stability, it is argued that the Israeli far right of obstructing the establishment of a Palestinian state represent the most immediate threat to Jordan’s national security.
